Prospect Game Review: Massachusetts at Minnesota

Slow day in DC today, so I fired up the DVR and knocked this one out. I might get to another one before the day's over. The Golden Gophers barely scraped out a victory over UMass, 5-4, at home. The Isles' Aaron Ness figured prominently into this one, and I also got a chance to catch Michael Marcou again. Minnesota also sports a roster of several NHL draft picks. It was my first time seeing them since the end of last season.

Isles Prospects (2 players)

Aaron Ness (2nd round, 2008): Let me use this forum to say that Ness made the wrong decision (hockey-wise) in returning to Minnesota for his junior year. I ranked Ness #23 in the organization, partly because he hasn't done much at Minnesota to develop. He has made some substantial strides, but nothing like his college counterparts Jason Gregoire and Shane Sims. He has a world of talent, with several superior attributes: top-notch, wonderfully fluid skating; excellent decision-making in both ends; the ability to make a tape-to-tape pass; very intelligent stick work; and a good knowledge of positioning. He plays in all situations for Minnesota because he's their best defenseman by a pretty long margin-- he's on PP1, PK1, and the first pairing even-strength.

Though he's getting his minutes, Ness hasn't progressed very much because he needs to be challenged. Don't be fooled by the stats-- fire up Fox College Sports and watch him play a couple games. It doesn't look like he belongs anymore. Here's an example: Ness jumps deep into the play (as he usually does) to create a scoring chance, which ends with his teammate shooting the puck wide of the net. Normally speaking, in the pro game, Ness would be screwed; this is a situation analogous to what led to Sean Bergenheim's goal-scoring breakaway in Tampa last night. Not at the college level, though-- Ness is fast enough to skate right back into position, even as the opponent's forwards begin the rush. A two-on-one for UMass turns into a two-on-two, and Ness sticks away the cross-ice pass into the corner. Crisis averted. That play is subtle, but it signifies total domination regardless. That's just a microcosm of what he can do at this level now.

Ness has been ready for the pros since his freshman season. Garth Snow knows this, too; he's tried to sign Ness the past two off-seasons to no avail. I don't blame Ness for thinking that there's unfinished business in Gopher Land, considering they've had a ton of talent but Don Lucia's foibles behind the bench have probably been the primary reason why they haven't played in the Frozen Four. That's what drew Rhett Rakhshani back for one more year, also. Thing is, I'm not sure how badly Ness will hurt his development by hanging out in college far longer than he needs to.

Why is that? Because Ness needs to undertake a pro training program to get stronger. He gets knocked off the puck without much effort in the college ranks, and that's a problem. He can make up for it through pure skill here, but in the pros, it won't fly. When I met him at prospect camp, I'd peg him at about 165 pounds. He needs to pack on 25-35 over the next 2-3 years to hack it in the NHL. Time will tell. His bulk is the last impediment to what could be a very fruitful NHL career.

Michael Marcou (Prospect camp invite, 2009-2010): A local kid from Kings Park, Mike was invited to prospect camp this year, where I met him. His brother James, now with the San Jose Sharks' AHL team, was a standout at UMass and an Isles prospect camp regular. Jimmy earned a pro contract through stringing together a couple great seasons in Amherst, including an All-American nod. While he had an uninspiring start to his college career, Mike has improved to the point where I think he'll merit a pro deal also.

Mike is in his junior season, and he looks a lot better than he did as a scrawny freshman. He's only 5'11" but has probably put on some weight because he looks heavier than 158 nowadays. He plays a strong two-way game, and he notched a goal and an assist against a way more talented Minnesota squad. He gets primo minutes and wears the A for the Minutemen, who rely on him in every situation. He did really well on both the PP and PK, showing great positioning and stickhandling. His awareness is exceptional; he intercepted several passes, one of which led to a slapshot goal. He assisted on the goal with his own net empty to bring UMass to within one, and he triple-shifted to generate several scoring chances for the game-tying tally. Unfortunately for UMass, it wasn't to be.

Nevertheless, I walked away very, very impressed with this kid. Look for him to come back to Isles prospect camp in the summer, where I think he's gonna get a second look. Pro contract? Way too tough to say, especially if he's still less than 180 pounds, which simply won't cut it. But he's got the solid two-way game to make it in the AHL if he bulks up. He's one to keep an eye on.

Other Players

Cade Fairchild (4th round, 2007, St. Louis): Fairchild's another typical St. Louis draft pick as far as defensemen go, very strong in the offensive zone and simply adequate in his own. He follows in the footsteps of Pietrangelo, Rundblad, Cundari, Warsofsky, and others of that ilk. He's a senior now, and I see him getting signed once the smoke clears. He runs a PP particularly well.

Zach Budish (2nd round, 2009, Nashville): Our very own Anders Lee's teammate from Edina High School. One of my favorite players from the '09 Draft before it even happened, and he's done nothing to change that impression. He's a champ in front of the net, helping out on two Minnesota goals by eating up the crease area. He's a conscientious backchecker and makes it a point to hit people. He's a bit of a slow skater, but I think he'll be just fine once he hits the pros.

Jay Barriball (7th round, 2006, San Jose): Scored a natural hat trick in this game that was mostly created through the work of his teammates. Nice finisher, though. He's captain of the team, playing his fifth season because he got hurt last year. Probably in line for an ELC.

Nick Bjugstad (1st round, 2010, Florida): Good player. Noticeably large and fast. Very creative offensively. Only a freshman, so he's got a lot more in store for him. Let's hope his development doesn't go along the same trajectory as, say, that of Jordan Schroeder. Remarkably similar to fellow Minnesota first-rounder Brock Nelson (Isles' property).

Jacob Cepis (Undrafted senior): Nobody has his rights, probably because he's very undersized. Good spark plug, though. He might not ever make it because he's only 5'7", but after two USHL seasons, two years at Bowling Green, and another year at Minnesota, he enters his senior year a smart and accomplished player who makes sure he distinguishes himself every time out there. Might get a deal somewhere if he has another good season.

Prospect Game Review: Manitoba at North Dakota

Any of you who know my posts from Islander Mania should already be familiar with my game reviews, which I've been writing up for a couple years now. This will be the one that kicks off the reviews for the blog, which will see a lot of these over its lifetime. Tonight, it's a contest that involves not one, but two Isles prospects: Jason Gregoire and Brock Nelson, both of North Dakota. The two players are at different points in their college careers; Nelson's a freshman trying to find his niche, whereas Gregoire is a returning junior who led the team in scoring last season and figures to be the leader of the team.

North Dakota took this one 5-2, an easy win for them in their own building as they tune up for a difficult conference schedule. Manitoba found themselves outclassed, mainly because North Dakota had the superior talent on the ice.

Isles Prospects (2 players)

Jason Gregoire (3rd round, 2007): I went so long without seeing him play that I forgot how damn good he actually is. My ranking of #15 was simply far too low for him, even in a system with this kind of depth; by the end of this season, he could crack the top five. Gregoire factored into the first three Sioux goals, scoring the second on a beautiful setup from Derek Forbort (more on him later). He had two assists as well, and his domination was not limited to statistics. He was tenacious on the forecheck, great on the PK, and making the smart play every time he had the opportunity. With and without the puck, he had a tremendous game. He was awesome last season, and he's only getting better. He was named Player of the Game by the Sioux's broadcasting network afterward, and for good reason.

As for Gregoire's future, I originally had him pegged as third line type. I think I underestimated him by a pretty long margin. Forward-looking as this may be, I think Gregoire can become the perfect complement to a guy like Tavares: he's defensively responsible, his improved skating makes him a pretty speedy player, and he has goal-scorer's hands. He's always in the right place at the right time, and he's willing to both (a) go to the dirty areas and (b) take the hit to get a quality shot on net. Keep an eye on him moving forward-- he's the real thing. He's been a cinch for an ELC since his freshman year, but the only question now is when.

Brock Nelson (1st round, 2010): This is my first full-game viewing experience of Brocko, the Isles' second first-round pick this past draft who I ranked #23 overall in the organization. I got a glimpse of his repertoire at prospect camp in July, and we had a pretty interesting conversation about his upcoming start at UND. Brock had a few good moments this game, but he's a freshman getting 4th line minutes, so there's not much to judge on right now. He had an assist in this one, a secondary helper on a power-play goal. He's already great on the forecheck, a product of his really good skating for his size. He's noticeably larger than everyone else on the ice, even Forbort. Considering he gets minimal time on special teams, it was tough to get a feel for his ability to do anything other than forecheck and backcheck. I'll have an eye on his development as the season moves forward.

Other Players

Brad Malone (4th round, 2007, Colorado): He's improved slowly but steadily for all three years I've seen him play at UND. He's a senior now, and he'll probably get signed by Colorado. He's Ryan Malone's cousin and plays with a pretty similar style. He had a very good-looking goal on a beautiful feed from Matt Frattin (more on him later).

Derek Forbort (1st round, 2010, Los Angeles): A total beast. Forbort was my second-favorite defenseman from this past draft behind the incomparable Cam Fowler, and he confirmed why this evening. He was all over the place, factoring into three UND goals while dominating in his own end against Manitoba. He has incredible skating skills for his size, and his puckhandling and vision are off the charts. Keep in mind that he's only a freshman, and he'll be playing on the same blue line with Drew Doughty within two years. Scary thought.

Ben Blood (4th round, 2007, Ottawa): OK player, but I'm not sure if he's NHL material. Contributes in all situations as far as I saw, but not particularly noticeable. Ottawa may or may not sign him to an ELC depending on their organizational depth. This is my third year viewing Blood, who's now a senior, and he's only made a little bit of progression since the first time I saw him. It's possible that he could make the jump to the AHL successfully, but that'll be for the Senators to judge.

Matt Frattin (4th round, 2007, Toronto): I have to admit that Toronto has done a good job in the later rounds recently. Jerry D'Amigo was a money pickup for them in the sixth round, and this kid Frattin looks like a find as well. He plays the point on PP1 for UND, where he thrives, and he also does really well as a playmaking winger in other situations. He's very speedy, and he's always a threat to create something on offense when he enters the zone. He's come a long way since his sophomore year, and I think Toronto will be happy to add him to the system after the year is up.

Isles Do Right by Martin and de Haan

The news that Calvin de Haan will be sent back to Oshawa for the season and that Matt Martin will start the year in Bridgeport shows that the Isles have the right idea when it comes to developing their young players. Though Nino Niederreiter's inclusion on the Opening Night roster is a little disconcerting, the Isles do have nine games to decide whether they'd like to send him down to Portland for the rest of the year.

With Martin, my rationale for favoring his demotion is well-known to anyone who's been reading regularly. I have confidence that with enough development, Martin has an appreciable shot at becoming a complementary top six player. It's not just that Martin has the perseverance and eagerness to learn that allows him to constantly develop his all-around repertoire, because many players have that type of tireless determination. It's that Martin has the physical ability and intelligence to translate that to tangible results. Every time I've seen him over the past year and a half, he's always come farther, and that continued this pre-season. With his improved skating and his pretty slick passing chops, he's now shown more than just the smallest inkling that he can contribute enough offensively to line up with guys like Josh Bailey.

Martin didn't have to prove that much more than he had by the end of last season. In his very short NHL stint, he already displayed that he could win battles in the corners, assert his will physically, and set strong screens in front of the net. Now, he's added in the ability to skate like a real NHL player and pass with some impressive vision. Provided he can knock in about 15 garbage goals a year, that's enough to get him top six minutes. But why stop there when Martin might have more left in him before he maxes out? That's why he should get more top six time in the Bridge.

As for de Haan, he's extremely talented, but the pre-season exposed both his dire need to adjust to pro game speed and his rust from the time off due to his shoulder injury. There was no reason to toss him into the fold when you already have a solid top four even without Streit (Wiz, Martinek, MacDonald, Eaton), plus two guys who could easily handle bottom six minutes (Mottau, Hillen) and three capable backups (Kohn, Gervais, and Reese). So it's not like you needed to unnecessarily rush de Haan for the sake of the success of the NHL team. He's best off playing a full, dominating season in the OHL with his buddy Tony DeHart, plus he can probably do very well at another WJC.

A nine-game audition for El Niño is a decent idea, but I wouldn't keep him around if he's not gonna merit more than 12 minutes a night. The last thing you wanna do is start molding him into a grinder; this is a top-five pick with some really good potential at a very young age. I trust Isles management to handle this situation the right way, regardless of whether the "right way" turns out to be a full year with the Islanders or a trip back to the Winterhawks. From what I saw, Niederreiter will need some time to make his mark, and the team can ill afford to drag him along while it desperately needs to tread water until its workhorse is healthy.

In sum, though, it's nice to see that the young guns will be developing outside the NHL team, as well they should. Having reliable vets like Sim fill in on the fourth line is always a better option.

Ranking the Prospects, Part III

For Part I, click here. For Part II, click here.

Tier Three: Longshots and Lottery Tickets

18. Kirill Kabanov, W, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Drafted: Third Round, 2010

Last Season: Moncton, QMJHL

Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp

NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season

Ceiling: One of the NHL's top wingers.

Floor: One of the KHL's top wingers.

Comments: An enigma of epic proportions, Kirill Kabanov is the type of prospect you simply can't get excited about until he solves his own issues. The talent is there, by all accounts. The Director of Scouting for an NHL team said he had the potential to be the evolutionary version of Ilya Kovalchuk. Respected scouting outlets had him ranked in the draft's overall top five this time last year, and proponents of Russian hockey had hyped him as 2010's sure-fire #1 overall since he was 15 years old. Then came the well-known troubles with Moncton (which appear to have been somewhat overblown, considering they happily took him back into the fold), the Russian junior team (which Kabanov insists are due to being blackballed), and the Islanders (which prompted them to cut him early instead of giving him a shot in the preseason). Having met him in person, it appeared to me like his problems are more out of naïveté than malice, but that doesn't make them any less irksome. If he matures and gets his act together, he's a steal. If not, he was a worthwhile risk who never panned out. Until we know the resolution, he's a roll of the dice we can't bank on. Thus, he's ranked outside the top fifteen.

19. Anders Lee, C/W, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA)

Drafted: Sixth Round, 2009

Last Season: Green Bay Gamblers, USHL

Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp

NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season

Ceiling: A formidable NHL power forward.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Lee had a banner year in Green Bay, where he racked up a League championship and every possible individual award except regular season MVP (which he arguably deserved also). Though he was a year older when he did it, Lee repeated the same four-trophy feat that the Isles' own Kyle Okposo did when he played with Des Moines of the USHL: league championship, playoff MVP, Rookie of the Year, scoring title. In spite of Lee's pedigree-- which is moreso out of fear that he would play Division I college football instead of college hockey-- that's nothing to scoff at. Based on what I've seen of him, I can tell you that he plays a mean, physical, gritty game with a great net front presence. He has pretty good skating and stickhandling skills to go with that, and his performance in the Clark Cup series speaks to how clutch he is. Our next move is simply to wait for him as he joins Riley Sheahan and others in trying to revitalize a sagging Notre Dame hockey program.

20. Tony DeHart, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)

Drafted: Fifth Round, 2010

Last Season: Oshawa, OHL

Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: Too early to tell.

Floor: Too early to tell.

Comments: I sort of put DeHart here on a wing and a prayer based on what I saw of him at rookie camp. He was drafted at 20 years old for a reason, considering he appears to bring a physical style to the table and supplements it with good offensive aptitude. He had to have paired well with Calvin de Haan at Oshawa this past year in order to merit a fifth round draft pick. In the blue/orange scrimmage, he showed a penchant for taking calculated risks and constantly trying to create something offensively. He has an imposing physical frame, even in street clothes. I'd consider him one to keep an eye on, considering he's already off to a steady start in the OHL this year.

21. Anders Nilsson, G, Luleå (SEL)

Drafted: Third Round, 2009

Last Season: Luleå, SEL; Team Sweden, WJC

Viewing Experience: 2 games

NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season

Ceiling: Too early to tell.

Floor: Too early to tell.

Comments: Goaltenders are not my strong suit, and I've only seen Nilsson play two garbage games in the WJC, so I won't really begin to prognosticate about him concretely. I ranked him conservatively with an eye toward getting a look at him when he comes stateside; I went mainly off the strength of his debut season in the SEL after playing in their junior circuit for awhile. The one obvious thing about Nilsson is his hulking frame, second only to Koskinen in the Isles' system (and probably anyone else's as well). He's a little more filled out than Koskinen, and he's stayed healthier since being drafted. Ultimately, I'll need a better look at him to form some sort of educated opinion.

22. Aaron Ness, D, Minnesota Golden Gophers (NCAA)

Drafted: Second Round, 2008

Last Season: Minnesota, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 5-6 games

NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season

Ceiling: A lesser Brian Rafalski, if he's the real deal.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Ness was probably the second most difficult to rank behind Donovan. The stats may not bear this out, but Ness is a serious talent. Literally the only thing holding him back is his size. He's an absolute wizard with the puck, a kid capable of dazzling passes and deceptive wrist shots. He's a great puck carrier as well, something which pairs with his all-world skating ability to create quite the spectacle when the disc is on his stick. He shows high-level hockey knowledge and really tries his best to use his body the right way. That being said, he's probably a shade below 5'10" and weighs 170 pounds soaking wet. You need to be Rafalski-level skilled, Bouillon-level tough, and/or Lebda-level strong to have an NHL career with that kind of frame. Jack Hillen appears to be managing OK with that, but Ness will need to really shine in the pros to move up with Hillen already on the team for the foreseeable future.

23. Brock Nelson, W, North Dakota Fighting Sioux (NCAA)

Drafted: First Round, 2010

Last Season: Warroad High School (USHS)

Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp

NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season

Ceiling: Sky's the limit.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: The Isles traded up to nab Nelson this past June, and for good reason. He's already made waves at the preliminary USA WJC camp, with some observers saying he outperformed fellow first rounder Nick Bjugstad. He looked good at the blue/orange game as well, showing surprisingly fluid skating for a big man and a pretty nasty set of passing chops. Nelson is pretty much all potential at this point, a guy who will skip the customary stint in the USHL and head straight to college. He'll be teammates with the Isles' Jason Gregoire there, and by next year, they should be playing on a line together. I'll be able to watch a handful of his games on TV this year, so I'll be updating everyone on how he looks.

24. Anton Klementyev, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Fifth Round, 2009

Last Season: Bridgeport, AHL; Islanders, NHL; Team Russia, WJC

Viewing Experience: 5 games

NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season

Ceiling: A classic middle-of-the-road stay-at-home defenseman.

Floor: Back to Russia.

Comments: Anton made his NHL debut in a pinch when the Isles were crunched for roster space. He showed pretty good competency in his eight minutes before he was promptly sent back down. He spent time in the press box with Bridgeport as well, though he got into about half the team's games. He went to the WJC with the Russians, but not before Snowy tried to use him as a bargaining chip to get Petrov out of his contract with Ak Bars. He performed admirably at the WJC, though his team didn't; that was largely not his fault, considering he was the only Russian defender who seemed to care about his own zone. As a matter of fact, Klementyev is totally devoid of any offensive aptitude whatsoever. His sole responsibility is guarding the front of the net and hitting opposing attackers, two things he seems to do pretty well. Couple that with his strong frame, and he's a candidate to see the NHL with some seasoning down the road. If he develops any offense in the process, it'll be a huge bonus.

25. Corey Trivino, C, Boston University Terriers (NCAA)

Drafted: Second Round, 2008

Last Season: BU, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 4 games

NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season

Ceiling: Another Frans Nielsen.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Trivino saw his stock plummet this season after his offensive production sputtered, he suffered a serious leg injury, and he got into trouble with the team for off-campus drinking and nearly lost his scholarship. I saw him play in both his conference tournament and in the college Winter Classic. His skills are still there, and his offensive numbers probably dipped because his veteran teammates all left for the pros. That being said, his struggles shouldn't be ignored, and his value took a tremendous hit since this time last year. His all-around game is solid, and his style is eerily reminiscent of #51-- those are the only two reasons I won't write him off. If he doesn't have a rebound year, though, it might be time to forget about him.

26. Jason Clark, C, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA)

Drafted: Third Round, 2010

Last Season: Shattuck-St. Mary's High School, Minnesota (USHS)

Viewing Experience: Prospect camp

NHL ETA: 2015-2016 season

Ceiling: Too early to tell.

Floor: Too early to tell.

Comments: A self-styled grinder, Clark appears to understand that his best shot at making the NHL is as a bottom six center in the Dave Bolland mold (though we could only be so lucky if Clark turned out the same way). He brings a large frame to the table and experience at one of the nation's premier hockey high schools. I'll be able to catch his Wisconsin games on TV every so often, so I'll keep you updated. For those of you who didn't know, Clark is the fruit of the Billy Guerin trade from two years ago.

27. Brian Day, W, Colgate Raiders (NCAA)

Drafted: Sixth Round, 2006

Last Season: Colgate, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 1 game

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: A longshot, but could make the NHL in some capacity.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Day has quietly racked up a distinguished college career since the day he was drafted, and he'll cap it off trying to bring Colgate from obscurity to the Frozen Four tournament as captain of the team. Day has very good offensive skills and vision, but frankly speaking, he's a floater. It could be because he's a weak skater, but Day often finds himself either skating upright or standing still for a substantial portion of the time he's on the ice. He does try to battle along the boards and grind a little, but it's not nearly enough if he wants to make the NHL. Day has the time to make a change, but until then, he's not likely to crack an NHL top six at this point, so he has to develop a constant motor on the ice to succeed.

Tier Four: Write-Offs

Justin DiBenedetto: It appears from his preseason exploits that he may be trying to make it as an agitator. I wish him luck in that department, but I don't think it'll happen. DiBo doesn't have the skills to justify his lack of motor, which Scott Gordon says is improving; I'll believe it when I see it. I don't see an NHL future for Justin within the organization, though I'd love to be proven wrong.

David Toews: Unfortunately, he has neither the skills nor frame to accompany his high character and pretty good sense of grit. In the many games I've seen him play, I wouldn't call him noticeable. I hope his transfer to Brandon sparks something, but at the end of the day, I doubt it'll turn things around.

Robin Figren: He's spent a long time skating around without any particular purpose or direction, and the stats show it. It'd take an absolute miracle to bring his stock back from the dead. Spending that stint in Sweden was a horrible idea, and between him and Sean Bergenheim, I'd argue any Scandinavian player who takes that route is committing career suicide.

Tony Romano: Picked up from the Devils in exchange for Ben Walter. Neither is a consistent NHL player. His contract will probably be nixed at some point to accommodate other prospects.

Tomas Marcinko: If it wasn't gonna happen by now, it was never gonna happen. He appeared to have what it takes to be a fourth line center at one point, but the Isles probably didn't see it that way. We hardly knew ye.

Jase Weslosky: The Isles theoretically still hold his rights, so he's included here as a formality. However, he spent last season academically ineligible, and with the goalie logjam in front of him, his window has closed.

Ranking the Prospects, Part II

For Part I, click here.

Tier Two: Red-Chip Prospects

8. Kevin Poulin, G, Kalmazoo Wings (ECHL)

Drafted: Fifth Round, 2008

Last Season: Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL

Viewing Experience: 1 game

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: A starting goaltender.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Poulin was receiving praise left and right from everyone who witnessed his performance in the wide-open, offensively-minded QMJHL. He was once regarded as a top talent for the 2008 draft, but a lackluster performance leading up to the draft caused his stock to crash. The Isles took a chance on him, and his stock has since recovered to its previous level. After a brilliant campaign for the Tigres in which he nearly singlehandedly propelled them to the QMJHL finals, Poulin was signed to an ELC this past off-season. I haven't seen him enough to profile him, but his production has earned him this ranking. In all likelihood, if Rick DiPietro stays healthy, he's headed to the ECHL to start the year.

9. David Ullström, C/W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Fourth Round, 2008

Last Season: HV71, SEL

Viewing Experience: 2 games

NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season

Ceiling: A good third liner.

Floor: A grinder.

Comments: Ullström first hit the scene in the 2008 WJC, where he represented Sweden with solid results. Later, he went back to the SEL and played with HV71, where he won the league championship this past season and picked up a playoff goal in the process. In prospect camp, he showed a good combination of size, speed, and physical play. It appeared he had a nice feel for the game, but it was impossible to tell in a game that didn't count for anything. In my other viewings of him, he barely had any ice time. My understanding is that he doesn't have the hands to be a top six player, but he brings other skills to the table that will allow to him to contribute on the bottom six. He'll probably spend this year and most of next year in the AHL before getting his first taste of the NHL.

10. Blake Kessel, D, University of New Hampshire Wildcats (NCAA)

Drafted: Sixth Round, 2007

Last Season: UNH, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 4 games

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: A reliable 22-minute all-around defenseman.

Floor: Never sees the NHL.

Comments: Kessel is being underrated because of his unimpressive pedigree, which seems paradoxical because his brother is one of the premier scoring wingers in the NHL. However, when you consider the fact that the Isles fan base has probably had enough of experimenting on All-Star players' brothers, this stigma becomes understandable. I can tell you that Kessel doesn't deserve that label, though; he's too good to lump in with the likes of The Better Lindros. He plays a very fundamentally sound all-around game, and he has all of the physical tools to succeed in the NHL. He has quietly lit up his conference in college hockey after a very successful campaign in the USHL. He made the Frozen Four tournament look like child's play two years in a row; it wasn't only me who was saying that he could've been signed to a contract right after his team suffered an unexpected loss to RIT in the postseason (and it wasn't his fault, either).

11. Mark Katic, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Third Round, 2007

Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL

Viewing Experience: 2 games

NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season

Ceiling: A nice offensive defenseman and power-play specialist to have on your team.

Floor: A career AHLer.

Comments: Katic is another product from the quiet but thus-far successful 2007 draft, in which the Isles didn't have a pick in the first two rounds. He suffered a shoulder injury last year, hurting his stock; however, it came after an AHL All-Star selection in his first full season in the Bridge. Some say he's the organization's best skater; I give that title to Aaron Ness, but it doesn't hurt to have two guys who can start a legitimate argument over it. Bridgeport observers praised his power-play ability last year. I have doubts about his work in his own zone, considering it has a ways to go before it's passable in the NHL, but he'll probably merit a call-up sometime during the next couple seasons to give us a better look at what we've really got in him.

12. Matt Donovan, D, Denver University Pioneers (NCAA)

Drafted: Fourth Round, 2008

Last Season: DU, NCAA; Team USA, WJC

Viewing Experience: >10 games

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: An All-Star caliber NHL defenseman.

Floor: Career AHLer.

Comments: Donovan was by far the toughest guy to place. He couldn't have had a more spectacular year between DU and the WJC. To call his performance "fantastic" would be an understatement. He admirably shared top-pairing duties with Cam Fowler for the red, white and blue; for the rest of the season, he starred as the top defenseman on a DU team that was dominant throughout the regular season before getting shocked in the first round of the NCAA tournament. His play in his own zone showed such marked improvement that I could barely believe it was actually him wearing the uniform. He still lacks in the physicality department, but his positioning is great and his transition game is wonderful. Offensively, he showed flashes of what could lie in store for us down the road: wonderful setups and crafty shooting that would fool any below-average NHL goaltender. Keep in mind he managed to accomplish all of this as a 19-year-old freshman.

And that's what keeps him from getting ranked higher: he's too far away. If the Isles brass signed him, I would've ranked him in the top five; however, he's got at least one more year in college, and then at least one year in the AHL, barring a dominant performance from him next year. However, there's little denying that Donovan could be something special when he hits Long Island. His play on both the national and international levels this season put the scouting community on notice.

13. Dustin Kohn, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Second Round, 2005

Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; New York Islanders, NHL

Viewing Experience: >10 games

NHL ETA: Cracked the NHL in 2010; will battle for a spot this upcoming training camp.

Ceiling: A respectable NHL defenseman.

Floor: A career AHLer.

Comments: At this point, there's not much to be said. Kohn is what he is. He has very likely maxed out. I, for one, liked his performance in the NHL this past year, and I don't mind him as the eighth or ninth defenseman on the depth chart. He would need to set the world on fire to prove he's anything more than that, though. He's already made an AHL All-Star team, and he's already done well in his cup of coffee with the Islanders. Unless he does something spectacular, he'll eventually be a victim of the numbers game. In the meantime, though, he's ready to make a contribution to the NHL team in a pinch.

14. Shane Sims, D, Ohio State University Buckeyes (NCAA)

Drafted: Fifth Round, 2006

Last Season: OSU, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 3 games

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: A solid all-around 22-minute defenseman.

Floor: An AHL-NHL tweener.

Comments: Anyone familiar with my Isles-related opinions knows that Sims is my favorite prospect. He's entirely overlooked by the fan base for several reasons: (a) he plays for a mediocre program; (b) it's been four years since his draft year; (c) higher-profile prospects have since entered the system; (d) he's never put up eye-popping numbers; and (e) he's never on national TV. Everything about his NHL potential only comes through when you're watching him firsthand. He has an impressive all-around repertoire with above-average attributes in nearly every aspect of the game, with his hockey sense and his heavy slapshot being the most noticeable skills. He started as an undersized nobody coming out of a small town in upstate New York, but after a sneaky-good year in the USHL, he quietly picked up steam by growing three inches and adding 25 pounds over the course of his college career. Now standing at 6'1" 200, Sims has the frame to handle the rigors of pro hockey with relative ease. I think he's a no-doubter to get signed to an ELC after the year ends, and I'm confident he will eventually see the NHL.

15. Jason Gregoire, W, North Dakota Fighting Sioux (NCAA)

Drafted: Third Round, 2007

Last Season: UND, NCAA

Viewing Experience: 7-8 games

NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season

Ceiling: The next Kris Versteeg, but with a better wrist shot.

Floor: A grinder. I doubt at this point that he never sees a shift.

Comments: Gregoire is another NCAA kid who just doesn't get as much love from the fan base because they're not able to actually see him play all the time. If you have a premium cable package with the sports channels, you can catch Gregoire on Fox College Sports about 6 times a year, which is even more important info to know this year because Brock Nelson will be his teammate at North Dakota. I suggest watching Gregoire because he's becoming a keeper: a guy with a very high level of hockey sense with the skills to match. He packs a great wrist shot, which he used on his way to leading UND in goals last season. He's responsible at every turn, which is something you can see from him every game you watch; the first time I ever saw him play, he took a sure goal away from James van Riemsdyk in the NCAA tournament with wonderful stick work on the backcheck. He's a guy who's been steadily improving and might leave school early to join the Isles.

16. Rhett Rakhshani, W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Fourth Round, 2006

Last Season: DU, NCAA; Bridgeport, AHL

Viewing Experience: 5-6 games

NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season

Ceiling: A nice bottom six player.

Floor: A career AHLer.

Comments: Rakhshani was the longtime unquestioned leader of the Pioneers who heavily considered jumping to the pros after his junior season before deciding to come back for one more round. His pursuit of a championship fell short at the hands of the feisty RIT team that also downed UNH in the following game. Despite that, though, Rakhshani put the cap on a great college campaign that saw his stock steadily rise. My doubts about him don't come from the hockey sense department or character department; he excels in both areas. Ultimately, I question whether he has the size, strength, and speed to translate his game to the pros. He found himself knocked off the puck a little too easily in college, which doesn't bode well for the AHL, let alone the NHL. His speed is good, but he's not a burner and won't easily beat a competent NHL skater in a footrace. His shot is consistent but not special, and his stick work won't create much space for him. So while Rakhshani brings a lot of important contributions to the table that could be useful to the Islanders down the road-- especially his mastery on the PK-- I'm not sure whether he can handle the NHL physically. Time will tell, and I'll be rooting for him.

17. Casey Cizikas, C, Mississauga-St. Michael's Majors (OHL)

Drafted: Fourth Round, 2009

Last Season: MSM, OHL

Viewing Experience: 1 game

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: The next Mike Sillinger.

Floor: A career AHLer.

Comments: Cizikas overcame some legal troubles to re-focus on hockey and turn in a wonderful year with Mississauga. More or less, this upcoming season will tell us a great deal about whether Cizikas is the real thing. He comes back to a good supporting cast in Mississauga, and his junior coach will head up the Canadian WJC squad, where he may make the team as its fourth line center. Cizikas impressed in rookie camp, and some members of the fan base have begun following him in earnest. Cizikas's strength is in his hockey sense (notice the recurring theme here) and his grinding skills, particularly in the face-off circle. He has good fundamental skills to go along with a decent offensive arsenal, though I don't see him ever putting up high point totals should he be fortunate enough to make the NHL. I think Sillinger is a good comparison here because Cizikas does many of the same things well. If he gets far enough to merit NHL consideration, he'll have to compete with the likes of Frans Nielsen, David Ullström, and others to secure a spot.

For Part III, click here.

A Complete Ranking of Isles Prospects, First Edition (Part I)

This list has been anticipated by about five people for a pretty long time, so without further ado, I will rank the Isles' prospects from top to bottom. In case you don't know how I rank, feel free to consult my post on The Bankability Scale to get caught up. The other aspects of the list should be pretty self-explanatory.

Tier One: Solid Bets for the NHL

1. Travis Hamonic, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Second Round, 2008

Last Season: Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL; Memorial Cup Finalist; Team Canada, WJC

Viewing Experience: >10 games

NHL ETA: February 2011

Ceiling: A legitimate 25-minute defenseman and one of the top blue liners in the NHL.

Floor: A solid 20-minute defenseman.

Comments: Hamonic spent the past season kicking ass and taking names in three different settings, launching him onto the mainstream radar and into the top spot in a deep Islanders system. It's easier to ask what Hamonic doesn't bring to the table, considering he has such a well-rounded, complete game that it's hard to find flaws unless you nitpick. He was originally known as a stay-at-home defenseman, yet he developed into a monster who can log heavy minutes in all situations and contribute significantly in all three zones. He navigates the penalty kill and the power play with equal aplomb, and he proved himself against elite talents left and right between the WHL, WJC, and Memorial Cup. He guards the front of the net, he plays the body instead of the puck, he has wonderful fundamental skills, and he's blessed with the physical wherewithal to accomplish anything on the ice. By all accounts, his character is off the charts as well. He plays with a noticeable mean streak that will soon grace the ice sheet in Uniondale. My praise for him obviously could not be more effusive.

2. Kirill Petrov, W, Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)

Drafted: Third Round, 2008

Last Season: Ak Bars Kazan, KHL; Team Russia, WJC; Team Russia, SSS

Viewing Experience: 4 games

NHL ETA: Now, if the Islanders can sort out his contract situation.

Ceiling: A legit top six forward.

Floor: Oleg Kvasha, just faster.

Comments: Petrov received a fair bit of accolades during his draft year, but his contract situation caused his stock to plummet. The Isles, with their abundance of picks, took the flyer on him in the middle rounds. From what I've seen, it'll eventually pay off. Regardless of when he shows up in North America for good, screwed-up development notwithstanding, he appears to be the real deal. Petrov is a big-bodied, strong-skating, quick-wristed player who focuses more on the offensive side than the defensive side. He shows good hockey sense and plays with somewhat of a mean streak. The downside to Petrov is that he shows bouts of inconsistency, his passing needs serious work, and he's essentially rotting while his championship Russian team stubbornly refuses to integrate him into the regular rotation. Scott Gordon unusually tipped his hand in praising Petrov during rookie camp, but unfortunately, the public was denied a live viewing of him at Orange vs. Blue (he was held out as a precaution because his shoulder was acting up). There's a reason Garth Snow used Anton Klementyev as a bargaining chip to try and bring him here: he can help the Isles right this second. It's just a question of when he can get to the Island.

3. Calvin de Haan, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)

Drafted: First Round, 2009

Last Season: Oshawa Generals, OHL; Team Canada, WJC

Viewing Experience: 5-7 games

NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season

Ceiling: A 22-minute defenseman who can handle the other team's top line if he has the right partner.

Floor: An 18-minute defenseman used primarily in offensive situations.

Comments: Calvin's stock suffered a bit this past year because he suffered a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. I ran into him at rookie camp, and he looked about 20 pounds heavier. That being said, de Haan will definitely require a readjustment period to shake the rust off as he dives back into regular hockey. It'll take a miracle for him to make the NHL team, especially over Hamonic.

De Haan is among the smartest prospects in the world at any position, a trait that was particularly on display at the WJC. He makes plays that other defensemen simply wouldn't think to make. He's a very gifted skater and stickhandler who is definitely pass-first rather than shoot-first in the offensive zone. Don't expect him to rack up goals during his NHL career; he'll be much more inclined to pile on in the assists department. His defensive positioning is very fundamentally sound, and he'll hopefully have less issues getting physically overpowered by bigger players now that he's added some weight. De Haan has had a storied tenure headlining for the Generals, and he probably has a good NHL career ahead of him in the near future.

4. Nino Niederreiter, W, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Drafted: First Round, 2010

Last Season: Portland Winterhawks, WHL; Team Switzerland, WJC

Viewing Experience: 4 games

NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season

Ceiling: A top six heart-and-soul power forward.

Floor: A premium grinder.

Comments: Niederreiter, the Isles' most recent first round draft pick, embodies every characteristic the Isles seek in their players, which is naturally why all of our forecasts for who they would select turned out horribly wrong. Niederreiter combines size, skating, hands, hockey sense, and sterling character into one very formidable package. The knock on Niederreiter is his acceleration, and rightfully so. His top speed is okay, but he has trouble reaching it in the open ice. His goals are scored in the dirty areas, and he probably won't see many breakaways in the NHL. Nevertheless, he takes his proverbial lunchpail to work every day and simply does whatever it takes to help his team win the game, from scoring to backchecking to winning battles along the boards to hitting people. His mean streak came out during the WJC, where he carried Switzerland to a surprising semifinal finish. He was the hero against Russia, where his two goals capped off a remarkable comeback victory for the Swiss. While he's physically ready for the NHL, I think it's a better idea for him to spend the year dominating juniors and making a return trip to the WJC in Buffalo.

5. Matt Martin, W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Fifth Round, 2008

Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; New York Islanders, NHL

Viewing Experience: >10 games

NHL ETA: Cracked the NHL in 2010; 2011-2012 season for a regular shift

Ceiling: A top six enforcer in the mold of Milan Lucic.

Floor: An all-around grinder/enforcer.

Comments: An instant fan favorite the minute he donned an NHL uniform, Martin still has something to prove regardless of his overcoming long odds to make the League as an unheralded fifth-round reach in 2008. After going undrafted at every possible level of amateur hockey, he earned his Isles draft selection and later fought for a cameo appearance in the bigs. Frankly, from the way he was playing, he could've stayed for good. He provided excellent net front presence, much-needed puck protection and physical intimidation, and indomitable work ethic.

Why, then, do I advocate for Martin to spend a majority of the year in Bridgeport? Because I think his untapped offensive acumen could be further developed with spectacular results. While Chris Botta boldly compared him to Milan Lucic awhile back, I believe Martin could become better than Lucic if he maxes out. An unlikely scenario? Absolutely, but one worth a roll of the dice considering James Wisniewski, Zenon Konopka, and Trevor Gillies are ready to bring the nasty for the Islanders this year.

6. Mikko Koskinen, G, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Second Round, 2009

Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; Utah Grizzlies, ECHL

Viewing Experience: 1 game

NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season

Ceiling: A high-caliber starting NHL goalie.

Floor: A career backup.

Comments: Koskinen is the 6'7" Finnish goalie that the Islanders snatched up with their second round pick in the 2010 draft. He's still lanky, but he's apparently been working a fair amount with Sudsie Maharaj in honing his skills and adapting to the North American game. He's surprisingly athletic and agile for his size, though we're yet to see the effects of his recent hip surgery on his AHL performance. If he has a spectacular year in Connecticut, he could see NHL time in 2011-2012; however, he likely won't be given serious responsibility until the subsequent season. He'd be ranked higher if he had a good performance throughout this past season.

7. Jesse Joensuu, W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)

Drafted: Second Round, 2006

Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; New York Islanders, NHL

Viewing Experience: >10 games

NHL ETA: Now.

Ceiling: A good all-around third liner.

Floor: A good all-around fourth liner.

Comments: Joensuu is, in my mind, the most consistently underrated Islanders prospect by the fan base at large. With the importation of so many shiny new toys, it's understandable that the masses would get starry-eyed and excited over sublime talents like Kirill Kabanov and overachievers like Anders Lee. However, Joensuu has been overlooked for his performance at the professional level, particularly at the NHL level. What I saw out of Joensuu during his brief NHL stints is exactly what I want out of a bottom six player: consistent net front presence, willingness to grind, a little bit of a mean streak, responsibility in all zones, good hockey sense, and nice size to boot. His skating has improved each season he's been in North America. He has put up some decent point totals in the AHL, and there's no reason to believe he can't be a late bloomer like fellow big man Nikolai Antropov. Will he ever toss up a 70-point season? In all likelihood, he won't. But if he turns in a 35-point season with respectable +/- numbers while bringing all the aforementioned things to the table, I don't see the argument that he doesn't fit, considering that'd be perfect for the bottom six. Just because he's unspectacular doesn't mean he's undeserving of any attention whatsoever.

For Part II, click here.

Ranking Prospects: The Bankability Scale

In case you're unfamiliar with The Bankability Scale, I made it up myself a couple years ago. It's totally untested, entirely unconventional, and (unfortunately) uniquely my own. I will detail it to you below so you understand exactly where I'm coming from when I rank prospects.

Why did I choose this particular method? In short, I'm only interested in what I can count on to help the NHL team. It's not necessarily about potential, it's a combination of ceiling and the probability a player reaches that ceiling. The players closer to the NHL are the ones who are concordantly further along in their development 99% of the time. While many fans fall in love with high-ceiling guys who are many years away from the NHL, I value a lower-ceiling player who can provide help to the Islanders in the near future.

The Breakdown

Proximity to the NHL (50%): Simply put, this is the most important part of evaluating any player who is not currently in the NHL. This doesn't necessarily imply a player's current League; for instance, Nino Niederreiter, who played for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL last year, is closer to making an NHL contribution than Justin DiBenedetto, who spent all of last year with Bridgeport of the AHL. The ultimate question posed by this criterion: "What is the countdown to a consistent NHL shift for this player?"

NHL Potential (30%): It's certainly important, but I rate it lower than proximity to the NHL because it's rather worthless unless a player actually reaches it. While a player may be highly skilled, this rating may take a hit if the player shows certain inclinations that throw his future NHL performance into doubt. For instance, Robin Figren is very talented, but his hockey sense needs a lot of work. Thus, he is rated far lower than the less-gifted Casey Cizikas.

Health (10%): The unfortunate reality of the NHL is that health is precious, and significant injuries make a productive career less likely. Exactly how much less likely is obviously dependent on the frequency and severity of a player's injuries. While young men aged 17-22 heal much better than older people, it's a warning sign when you can't stay on the ice.

Character (10%): Character alone won't get you to the NHL, but it sure can help your chances (just ask Matt Martin). On the other hand, character can really work against you (just ask Kirill Kabanov). I like the Isles' general strategy of avoiding character risks, but I don't consider it a very important element before a guy hits the NHL. The impact is most visible after a player reaches the bigtime.

Wild Card Factors (Variable): If you fill a particular role especially well, if you will satisfy a dire need for the NHL team, or if you bring something else to the table that can't be categorized under the other four labels, it'll be taken into consideration on an ad hoc basis. The best example I can think of is Stefan Della Rovere, formerly of the Capitals and now of the Blues, who is just an excellent agitator. He gets bonus points for filling that role to perfection.

Factors Not Considered

Pedigree: The only day your draft position matters is the day you're drafted. The next day, and every day after that until you either crack the NHL for good or leave the organization, it's all about how you look in games that matter against age-appropriate competition. I'm sure we all know examples of top draft picks who have failed miserably and low draft picks who have gone on to wild success in the League. Pedigree simply doesn't determine anything about how well somebody plays the game of hockey. Notice how, as an amateur scout with no credibility, I will wantonly ignore the consensus opinions of several entire scouting staffs for NHL teams.

Hype: I don't care what TSN, McKeen's, RLR, ISS, CSB, Puck Prospectus, team message boards and blogs, team officials, anonymous executives and scouts, or any other individuals think about a player. I'm here to form my own opinion. I'm certainly not here to aggregate and/or copy-paste the praise and/or condemnations of third-party sources. If I don't know, I'll admit I don't know.

Transfer Issues: Kirill Petrov's contract situation with Ak Bars Kazan is of no consequence to me. I'm not in the business of predicting how that will turn out. I'm also not really concerned about the $250,000 it'll take to pry Anders Nilsson from Luleå in Sweden. Team officials will sort that out one way or another whenever it's appropriate. Speculation on those types of circumstances proves rather useless.

Organizational Depth: I will not rank a defenseman lower than a goalie because goalie is a greater organizational need unless, as mentioned above, that fact clearly makes a player more likely to see a regular NHL shift sooner rather than later. The Isles' organizational glut at center, however, does not ruin the stock in any way, shape, or form of a guy like Brock Nelson. Needs will constantly be in flux.

Trade Value: I don't consider prospects as trade chips first and foremost. If the deal is right, any player's available in a trade. While I do view prospects as assets, I do not view them as commodities. The farm system is not a chaingun for the GM to constantly take shots at landing a big fish on the trade market. Transactions on young players are to be executed judiciously at all times.

Wrapping Up

That about sums up the system in its entirety. Yes, it's probably flawed, and yes, it is subject to change. Nothing about it is set in stone. I'll adjust it if and only if it's entirely clear that change is necessary. It hasn't failed me yet, though.