Tier One: Solid Bets for the NHL
1. Travis Hamonic, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
Drafted: Second Round, 2008
Last Season: Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL; Memorial Cup Finalist; Team Canada, WJC
Viewing Experience: >10 games
NHL ETA: February 2011
Ceiling: A legitimate 25-minute defenseman and one of the top blue liners in the NHL.
Floor: A solid 20-minute defenseman.
Comments: Hamonic spent the past season kicking ass and taking names in three different settings, launching him onto the mainstream radar and into the top spot in a deep Islanders system. It's easier to ask what Hamonic doesn't bring to the table, considering he has such a well-rounded, complete game that it's hard to find flaws unless you nitpick. He was originally known as a stay-at-home defenseman, yet he developed into a monster who can log heavy minutes in all situations and contribute significantly in all three zones. He navigates the penalty kill and the power play with equal aplomb, and he proved himself against elite talents left and right between the WHL, WJC, and Memorial Cup. He guards the front of the net, he plays the body instead of the puck, he has wonderful fundamental skills, and he's blessed with the physical wherewithal to accomplish anything on the ice. By all accounts, his character is off the charts as well. He plays with a noticeable mean streak that will soon grace the ice sheet in Uniondale. My praise for him obviously could not be more effusive.
2. Kirill Petrov, W, Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)
Drafted: Third Round, 2008
Last Season: Ak Bars Kazan, KHL; Team Russia, WJC; Team Russia, SSS
Viewing Experience: 4 games
NHL ETA: Now, if the Islanders can sort out his contract situation.
Ceiling: A legit top six forward.
Floor: Oleg Kvasha, just faster.
Comments: Petrov received a fair bit of accolades during his draft year, but his contract situation caused his stock to plummet. The Isles, with their abundance of picks, took the flyer on him in the middle rounds. From what I've seen, it'll eventually pay off. Regardless of when he shows up in North America for good, screwed-up development notwithstanding, he appears to be the real deal. Petrov is a big-bodied, strong-skating, quick-wristed player who focuses more on the offensive side than the defensive side. He shows good hockey sense and plays with somewhat of a mean streak. The downside to Petrov is that he shows bouts of inconsistency, his passing needs serious work, and he's essentially rotting while his championship Russian team stubbornly refuses to integrate him into the regular rotation. Scott Gordon unusually tipped his hand in praising Petrov during rookie camp, but unfortunately, the public was denied a live viewing of him at Orange vs. Blue (he was held out as a precaution because his shoulder was acting up). There's a reason Garth Snow used Anton Klementyev as a bargaining chip to try and bring him here: he can help the Isles right this second. It's just a question of when he can get to the Island.
3. Calvin de Haan, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Drafted: First Round, 2009
Last Season: Oshawa Generals, OHL; Team Canada, WJC
Viewing Experience: 5-7 games
NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season
Ceiling: A 22-minute defenseman who can handle the other team's top line if he has the right partner.
Floor: An 18-minute defenseman used primarily in offensive situations.
Comments: Calvin's stock suffered a bit this past year because he suffered a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. I ran into him at rookie camp, and he looked about 20 pounds heavier. That being said, de Haan will definitely require a readjustment period to shake the rust off as he dives back into regular hockey. It'll take a miracle for him to make the NHL team, especially over Hamonic.
De Haan is among the smartest prospects in the world at any position, a trait that was particularly on display at the WJC. He makes plays that other defensemen simply wouldn't think to make. He's a very gifted skater and stickhandler who is definitely pass-first rather than shoot-first in the offensive zone. Don't expect him to rack up goals during his NHL career; he'll be much more inclined to pile on in the assists department. His defensive positioning is very fundamentally sound, and he'll hopefully have less issues getting physically overpowered by bigger players now that he's added some weight. De Haan has had a storied tenure headlining for the Generals, and he probably has a good NHL career ahead of him in the near future.
4. Nino Niederreiter, W, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Drafted: First Round, 2010
Last Season: Portland Winterhawks, WHL; Team Switzerland, WJC
Viewing Experience: 4 games
NHL ETA: 2011-2012 season
Ceiling: A top six heart-and-soul power forward.
Floor: A premium grinder.
Comments: Niederreiter, the Isles' most recent first round draft pick, embodies every characteristic the Isles seek in their players, which is naturally why all of our forecasts for who they would select turned out horribly wrong. Niederreiter combines size, skating, hands, hockey sense, and sterling character into one very formidable package. The knock on Niederreiter is his acceleration, and rightfully so. His top speed is okay, but he has trouble reaching it in the open ice. His goals are scored in the dirty areas, and he probably won't see many breakaways in the NHL. Nevertheless, he takes his proverbial lunchpail to work every day and simply does whatever it takes to help his team win the game, from scoring to backchecking to winning battles along the boards to hitting people. His mean streak came out during the WJC, where he carried Switzerland to a surprising semifinal finish. He was the hero against Russia, where his two goals capped off a remarkable comeback victory for the Swiss. While he's physically ready for the NHL, I think it's a better idea for him to spend the year dominating juniors and making a return trip to the WJC in Buffalo.
5. Matt Martin, W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
Drafted: Fifth Round, 2008
Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; New York Islanders, NHL
Viewing Experience: >10 games
NHL ETA: Cracked the NHL in 2010; 2011-2012 season for a regular shift
Ceiling: A top six enforcer in the mold of Milan Lucic.
Floor: An all-around grinder/enforcer.
Comments: An instant fan favorite the minute he donned an NHL uniform, Martin still has something to prove regardless of his overcoming long odds to make the League as an unheralded fifth-round reach in 2008. After going undrafted at every possible level of amateur hockey, he earned his Isles draft selection and later fought for a cameo appearance in the bigs. Frankly, from the way he was playing, he could've stayed for good. He provided excellent net front presence, much-needed puck protection and physical intimidation, and indomitable work ethic.
Why, then, do I advocate for Martin to spend a majority of the year in Bridgeport? Because I think his untapped offensive acumen could be further developed with spectacular results. While Chris Botta boldly compared him to Milan Lucic awhile back, I believe Martin could become better than Lucic if he maxes out. An unlikely scenario? Absolutely, but one worth a roll of the dice considering James Wisniewski, Zenon Konopka, and Trevor Gillies are ready to bring the nasty for the Islanders this year.
6. Mikko Koskinen, G, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
Drafted: Second Round, 2009
Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; Utah Grizzlies, ECHL
Viewing Experience: 1 game
NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season
Ceiling: A high-caliber starting NHL goalie.
Floor: A career backup.
Comments: Koskinen is the 6'7" Finnish goalie that the Islanders snatched up with their second round pick in the 2010 draft. He's still lanky, but he's apparently been working a fair amount with Sudsie Maharaj in honing his skills and adapting to the North American game. He's surprisingly athletic and agile for his size, though we're yet to see the effects of his recent hip surgery on his AHL performance. If he has a spectacular year in Connecticut, he could see NHL time in 2011-2012; however, he likely won't be given serious responsibility until the subsequent season. He'd be ranked higher if he had a good performance throughout this past season.
7. Jesse Joensuu, W, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
Drafted: Second Round, 2006
Last Season: Bridgeport Sound Tigers, AHL; New York Islanders, NHL
Viewing Experience: >10 games
NHL ETA: Now.
Ceiling: A good all-around third liner.
Floor: A good all-around fourth liner.
Comments: Joensuu is, in my mind, the most consistently underrated Islanders prospect by the fan base at large. With the importation of so many shiny new toys, it's understandable that the masses would get starry-eyed and excited over sublime talents like Kirill Kabanov and overachievers like Anders Lee. However, Joensuu has been overlooked for his performance at the professional level, particularly at the NHL level. What I saw out of Joensuu during his brief NHL stints is exactly what I want out of a bottom six player: consistent net front presence, willingness to grind, a little bit of a mean streak, responsibility in all zones, good hockey sense, and nice size to boot. His skating has improved each season he's been in North America. He has put up some decent point totals in the AHL, and there's no reason to believe he can't be a late bloomer like fellow big man Nikolai Antropov. Will he ever toss up a 70-point season? In all likelihood, he won't. But if he turns in a 35-point season with respectable +/- numbers while bringing all the aforementioned things to the table, I don't see the argument that he doesn't fit, considering that'd be perfect for the bottom six. Just because he's unspectacular doesn't mean he's undeserving of any attention whatsoever.
For Part II, click here.
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