Tier Three: Longshots and Lottery Tickets
18. Kirill Kabanov, W, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)
Drafted: Third Round, 2010
Last Season: Moncton, QMJHL
Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp
NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season
Ceiling: One of the NHL's top wingers.
Floor: One of the KHL's top wingers.
Comments: An enigma of epic proportions, Kirill Kabanov is the type of prospect you simply can't get excited about until he solves his own issues. The talent is there, by all accounts. The Director of Scouting for an NHL team said he had the potential to be the evolutionary version of Ilya Kovalchuk. Respected scouting outlets had him ranked in the draft's overall top five this time last year, and proponents of Russian hockey had hyped him as 2010's sure-fire #1 overall since he was 15 years old. Then came the well-known troubles with Moncton (which appear to have been somewhat overblown, considering they happily took him back into the fold), the Russian junior team (which Kabanov insists are due to being blackballed), and the Islanders (which prompted them to cut him early instead of giving him a shot in the preseason). Having met him in person, it appeared to me like his problems are more out of naïveté than malice, but that doesn't make them any less irksome. If he matures and gets his act together, he's a steal. If not, he was a worthwhile risk who never panned out. Until we know the resolution, he's a roll of the dice we can't bank on. Thus, he's ranked outside the top fifteen.
19. Anders Lee, C/W, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA)
Drafted: Sixth Round, 2009
Last Season: Green Bay Gamblers, USHL
Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp
NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season
Ceiling: A formidable NHL power forward.
Floor: Never sees the NHL.
Comments: Lee had a banner year in Green Bay, where he racked up a League championship and every possible individual award except regular season MVP (which he arguably deserved also). Though he was a year older when he did it, Lee repeated the same four-trophy feat that the Isles' own Kyle Okposo did when he played with Des Moines of the USHL: league championship, playoff MVP, Rookie of the Year, scoring title. In spite of Lee's pedigree-- which is moreso out of fear that he would play Division I college football instead of college hockey-- that's nothing to scoff at. Based on what I've seen of him, I can tell you that he plays a mean, physical, gritty game with a great net front presence. He has pretty good skating and stickhandling skills to go with that, and his performance in the Clark Cup series speaks to how clutch he is. Our next move is simply to wait for him as he joins Riley Sheahan and others in trying to revitalize a sagging Notre Dame hockey program.
20. Tony DeHart, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Drafted: Fifth Round, 2010
Last Season: Oshawa, OHL
Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp
NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season
Ceiling: Too early to tell.
Floor: Too early to tell.
Comments: I sort of put DeHart here on a wing and a prayer based on what I saw of him at rookie camp. He was drafted at 20 years old for a reason, considering he appears to bring a physical style to the table and supplements it with good offensive aptitude. He had to have paired well with Calvin de Haan at Oshawa this past year in order to merit a fifth round draft pick. In the blue/orange scrimmage, he showed a penchant for taking calculated risks and constantly trying to create something offensively. He has an imposing physical frame, even in street clothes. I'd consider him one to keep an eye on, considering he's already off to a steady start in the OHL this year.
21. Anders Nilsson, G, Luleå (SEL)
Drafted: Third Round, 2009
Last Season: Luleå, SEL; Team Sweden, WJC
Viewing Experience: 2 games
NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season
Ceiling: Too early to tell.
Floor: Too early to tell.
Comments: Goaltenders are not my strong suit, and I've only seen Nilsson play two garbage games in the WJC, so I won't really begin to prognosticate about him concretely. I ranked him conservatively with an eye toward getting a look at him when he comes stateside; I went mainly off the strength of his debut season in the SEL after playing in their junior circuit for awhile. The one obvious thing about Nilsson is his hulking frame, second only to Koskinen in the Isles' system (and probably anyone else's as well). He's a little more filled out than Koskinen, and he's stayed healthier since being drafted. Ultimately, I'll need a better look at him to form some sort of educated opinion.
22. Aaron Ness, D, Minnesota Golden Gophers (NCAA)
Drafted: Second Round, 2008
Last Season: Minnesota, NCAA
Viewing Experience: 5-6 games
NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season
Ceiling: A lesser Brian Rafalski, if he's the real deal.
Floor: Never sees the NHL.
Comments: Ness was probably the second most difficult to rank behind Donovan. The stats may not bear this out, but Ness is a serious talent. Literally the only thing holding him back is his size. He's an absolute wizard with the puck, a kid capable of dazzling passes and deceptive wrist shots. He's a great puck carrier as well, something which pairs with his all-world skating ability to create quite the spectacle when the disc is on his stick. He shows high-level hockey knowledge and really tries his best to use his body the right way. That being said, he's probably a shade below 5'10" and weighs 170 pounds soaking wet. You need to be Rafalski-level skilled, Bouillon-level tough, and/or Lebda-level strong to have an NHL career with that kind of frame. Jack Hillen appears to be managing OK with that, but Ness will need to really shine in the pros to move up with Hillen already on the team for the foreseeable future.
23. Brock Nelson, W, North Dakota Fighting Sioux (NCAA)
Drafted: First Round, 2010
Last Season: Warroad High School (USHS)
Viewing Experience: Highlights, prospect camp
NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season
Ceiling: Sky's the limit.
Floor: Never sees the NHL.
Comments: The Isles traded up to nab Nelson this past June, and for good reason. He's already made waves at the preliminary USA WJC camp, with some observers saying he outperformed fellow first rounder Nick Bjugstad. He looked good at the blue/orange game as well, showing surprisingly fluid skating for a big man and a pretty nasty set of passing chops. Nelson is pretty much all potential at this point, a guy who will skip the customary stint in the USHL and head straight to college. He'll be teammates with the Isles' Jason Gregoire there, and by next year, they should be playing on a line together. I'll be able to watch a handful of his games on TV this year, so I'll be updating everyone on how he looks.
24. Anton Klementyev, D, Bridgeport Sound Tigers (AHL)
Drafted: Fifth Round, 2009
Last Season: Bridgeport, AHL; Islanders, NHL; Team Russia, WJC
Viewing Experience: 5 games
NHL ETA: 2013-2014 season
Ceiling: A classic middle-of-the-road stay-at-home defenseman.
Floor: Back to Russia.
Comments: Anton made his NHL debut in a pinch when the Isles were crunched for roster space. He showed pretty good competency in his eight minutes before he was promptly sent back down. He spent time in the press box with Bridgeport as well, though he got into about half the team's games. He went to the WJC with the Russians, but not before Snowy tried to use him as a bargaining chip to get Petrov out of his contract with Ak Bars. He performed admirably at the WJC, though his team didn't; that was largely not his fault, considering he was the only Russian defender who seemed to care about his own zone. As a matter of fact, Klementyev is totally devoid of any offensive aptitude whatsoever. His sole responsibility is guarding the front of the net and hitting opposing attackers, two things he seems to do pretty well. Couple that with his strong frame, and he's a candidate to see the NHL with some seasoning down the road. If he develops any offense in the process, it'll be a huge bonus.
25. Corey Trivino, C, Boston University Terriers (NCAA)
Drafted: Second Round, 2008
Last Season: BU, NCAA
Viewing Experience: 4 games
NHL ETA: 2014-2015 season
Ceiling: Another Frans Nielsen.
Floor: Never sees the NHL.
Comments: Trivino saw his stock plummet this season after his offensive production sputtered, he suffered a serious leg injury, and he got into trouble with the team for off-campus drinking and nearly lost his scholarship. I saw him play in both his conference tournament and in the college Winter Classic. His skills are still there, and his offensive numbers probably dipped because his veteran teammates all left for the pros. That being said, his struggles shouldn't be ignored, and his value took a tremendous hit since this time last year. His all-around game is solid, and his style is eerily reminiscent of #51-- those are the only two reasons I won't write him off. If he doesn't have a rebound year, though, it might be time to forget about him.
26. Jason Clark, C, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA)
Drafted: Third Round, 2010
Last Season: Shattuck-St. Mary's High School, Minnesota (USHS)
Viewing Experience: Prospect camp
NHL ETA: 2015-2016 season
Ceiling: Too early to tell.
Floor: Too early to tell.
Comments: A self-styled grinder, Clark appears to understand that his best shot at making the NHL is as a bottom six center in the Dave Bolland mold (though we could only be so lucky if Clark turned out the same way). He brings a large frame to the table and experience at one of the nation's premier hockey high schools. I'll be able to catch his Wisconsin games on TV every so often, so I'll keep you updated. For those of you who didn't know, Clark is the fruit of the Billy Guerin trade from two years ago.
27. Brian Day, W, Colgate Raiders (NCAA)
Drafted: Sixth Round, 2006
Last Season: Colgate, NCAA
Viewing Experience: 1 game
NHL ETA: 2012-2013 season
Ceiling: A longshot, but could make the NHL in some capacity.
Floor: Never sees the NHL.
Comments: Day has quietly racked up a distinguished college career since the day he was drafted, and he'll cap it off trying to bring Colgate from obscurity to the Frozen Four tournament as captain of the team. Day has very good offensive skills and vision, but frankly speaking, he's a floater. It could be because he's a weak skater, but Day often finds himself either skating upright or standing still for a substantial portion of the time he's on the ice. He does try to battle along the boards and grind a little, but it's not nearly enough if he wants to make the NHL. Day has the time to make a change, but until then, he's not likely to crack an NHL top six at this point, so he has to develop a constant motor on the ice to succeed.
Tier Four: Write-Offs
Justin DiBenedetto: It appears from his preseason exploits that he may be trying to make it as an agitator. I wish him luck in that department, but I don't think it'll happen. DiBo doesn't have the skills to justify his lack of motor, which Scott Gordon says is improving; I'll believe it when I see it. I don't see an NHL future for Justin within the organization, though I'd love to be proven wrong.
David Toews: Unfortunately, he has neither the skills nor frame to accompany his high character and pretty good sense of grit. In the many games I've seen him play, I wouldn't call him noticeable. I hope his transfer to Brandon sparks something, but at the end of the day, I doubt it'll turn things around.
Robin Figren: He's spent a long time skating around without any particular purpose or direction, and the stats show it. It'd take an absolute miracle to bring his stock back from the dead. Spending that stint in Sweden was a horrible idea, and between him and Sean Bergenheim, I'd argue any Scandinavian player who takes that route is committing career suicide.
Tony Romano: Picked up from the Devils in exchange for Ben Walter. Neither is a consistent NHL player. His contract will probably be nixed at some point to accommodate other prospects.
Tomas Marcinko: If it wasn't gonna happen by now, it was never gonna happen. He appeared to have what it takes to be a fourth line center at one point, but the Isles probably didn't see it that way. We hardly knew ye.
Jase Weslosky: The Isles theoretically still hold his rights, so he's included here as a formality. However, he spent last season academically ineligible, and with the goalie logjam in front of him, his window has closed.
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