Why did I choose this particular method? In short, I'm only interested in what I can count on to help the NHL team. It's not necessarily about potential, it's a combination of ceiling and the probability a player reaches that ceiling. The players closer to the NHL are the ones who are concordantly further along in their development 99% of the time. While many fans fall in love with high-ceiling guys who are many years away from the NHL, I value a lower-ceiling player who can provide help to the Islanders in the near future.
The Breakdown
Proximity to the NHL (50%): Simply put, this is the most important part of evaluating any player who is not currently in the NHL. This doesn't necessarily imply a player's current League; for instance, Nino Niederreiter, who played for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL last year, is closer to making an NHL contribution than Justin DiBenedetto, who spent all of last year with Bridgeport of the AHL. The ultimate question posed by this criterion: "What is the countdown to a consistent NHL shift for this player?"
NHL Potential (30%): It's certainly important, but I rate it lower than proximity to the NHL because it's rather worthless unless a player actually reaches it. While a player may be highly skilled, this rating may take a hit if the player shows certain inclinations that throw his future NHL performance into doubt. For instance, Robin Figren is very talented, but his hockey sense needs a lot of work. Thus, he is rated far lower than the less-gifted Casey Cizikas.
Health (10%): The unfortunate reality of the NHL is that health is precious, and significant injuries make a productive career less likely. Exactly how much less likely is obviously dependent on the frequency and severity of a player's injuries. While young men aged 17-22 heal much better than older people, it's a warning sign when you can't stay on the ice.
Character (10%): Character alone won't get you to the NHL, but it sure can help your chances (just ask Matt Martin). On the other hand, character can really work against you (just ask Kirill Kabanov). I like the Isles' general strategy of avoiding character risks, but I don't consider it a very important element before a guy hits the NHL. The impact is most visible after a player reaches the bigtime.
Wild Card Factors (Variable): If you fill a particular role especially well, if you will satisfy a dire need for the NHL team, or if you bring something else to the table that can't be categorized under the other four labels, it'll be taken into consideration on an ad hoc basis. The best example I can think of is Stefan Della Rovere, formerly of the Capitals and now of the Blues, who is just an excellent agitator. He gets bonus points for filling that role to perfection.
Factors Not Considered
Pedigree: The only day your draft position matters is the day you're drafted. The next day, and every day after that until you either crack the NHL for good or leave the organization, it's all about how you look in games that matter against age-appropriate competition. I'm sure we all know examples of top draft picks who have failed miserably and low draft picks who have gone on to wild success in the League. Pedigree simply doesn't determine anything about how well somebody plays the game of hockey. Notice how, as an amateur scout with no credibility, I will wantonly ignore the consensus opinions of several entire scouting staffs for NHL teams.
Hype: I don't care what TSN, McKeen's, RLR, ISS, CSB, Puck Prospectus, team message boards and blogs, team officials, anonymous executives and scouts, or any other individuals think about a player. I'm here to form my own opinion. I'm certainly not here to aggregate and/or copy-paste the praise and/or condemnations of third-party sources. If I don't know, I'll admit I don't know.
Transfer Issues: Kirill Petrov's contract situation with Ak Bars Kazan is of no consequence to me. I'm not in the business of predicting how that will turn out. I'm also not really concerned about the $250,000 it'll take to pry Anders Nilsson from Luleå in Sweden. Team officials will sort that out one way or another whenever it's appropriate. Speculation on those types of circumstances proves rather useless.
Organizational Depth: I will not rank a defenseman lower than a goalie because goalie is a greater organizational need unless, as mentioned above, that fact clearly makes a player more likely to see a regular NHL shift sooner rather than later. The Isles' organizational glut at center, however, does not ruin the stock in any way, shape, or form of a guy like Brock Nelson. Needs will constantly be in flux.
Trade Value: I don't consider prospects as trade chips first and foremost. If the deal is right, any player's available in a trade. While I do view prospects as assets, I do not view them as commodities. The farm system is not a chaingun for the GM to constantly take shots at landing a big fish on the trade market. Transactions on young players are to be executed judiciously at all times.
Wrapping Up
That about sums up the system in its entirety. Yes, it's probably flawed, and yes, it is subject to change. Nothing about it is set in stone. I'll adjust it if and only if it's entirely clear that change is necessary. It hasn't failed me yet, though.
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