Taking their talents to South Beach... and forgetting to use them

I hope tonight isn't a reflection of the Isles possibly getting complacent with their modicum of success to begin the season. As encouraging as their start has been, this game might've been equally discouraging. Keep in mind for a second that Florida is the consensus pick to finish last in the League, and they have by far the least talent of any team in the NHL. No disrespect to David Booth, who is good, but he's their headliner. He's complementary top six on any other team. Tonight, though, he and the Panthers outworked the Islanders so badly that it was legitimately appalling. The game ended 4-3 because John Tavares has unbelievable hockey sense.

Positives

John Tavares had a hat trick.

Negatives

The Islanders were badly, badly outworked at even strength. Two heads-up power play goals from Tavares disguised what was a horrible effort 5-on-5. The Panthers spent long stretches in the Isles' zone, and their trap was excellently game-planned to totally frustrate the visiting team. They screened with impunity, absolutely owned the crease area, and peppered DiPietro with shots at every turn.

I hope you're sitting down for this bombshell: The Islanders were abjectly unable to clear the zone all night. Twice, this led to goals. The Panthers' cycling looked like Philly's during last year's playoffs. The likes of Steve Reinprecht, Rostislav Olesz, and Stephen Weiss-- all respectable players, sure, but come on-- cranked up the pressure in the Isles' zone and never let up on the gas pedal. DiPietro obviously didn't have a wonderful night, but regardless of his bad pass and squeaker on a deflection that should've been called a high-stick, he made some pretty damn good saves. The Islanders let up 30 shots to the worst offensive team in hockey, and they paid for it, plain and simple.

Somebody needs to clear the crease when the opposing team decides to screen. Nobody stepped up to the plate tonight. Granted, I'm not a coach, but why Jack Hillen is on the PK while Mike Mottau plays the PP is completely beyond me. Hillen was absolutely dominated in the crease all night-- to be expected considering his size-- and Mottau struggled to run PP2 (overshadowed by the success of PP1). Mottau, the vet with the mean streak, makes a lot more sense in the role of punishing Reinprecht when he tries to get cute in front of Ricky D; the shifty, creative Hillen makes a lot more sense in the quarterback slot on the second unit. Or maybe I'm delusional.

Rick DiPietro has to lay back with the puck. His turnover led to the first goal of the night, which made the difference. A total brain fart. He had Wisniewski unmolested right next to him, and he instead chose to try to clear it himself. A totally boneheaded decision, and I'm sure he knows it. The Rick needs to understand that he doesn't have to be a hero anymore. He's not trying to singlehandedly generate offense for the likes of Ruslan Fedotenko and Josef Vasicek; the team in front of him is more than capable of handling things by itself. Just how DP settled in with his technique and awareness, so too will he settle in with this puck decisions. Frustrating as tonight was, it's worth the wait long-term.

On the Panthers

Give the Panthers a ton of props for game-planning correctly. Tomas Vokoun came up huge tonight as well in spite of being conquered by Tavares three times. His play in the last 60 seconds was phenomenal. The Panther forwards were money, and with the support of Weaver and Wideman, they were able to generate enough offense to topple the Isles. That's a team pretty devoid of any talent whatsoever outside Booth and Weiss; DeBoer is just trying to do whatever he can to score some goals while hoping Vokoun steals a few.

I'm a little leery of Tallon's 2010 draft; I think he could've done a lot more with the picks he had. I'm not very high on Gudbranson, and though I do like Bjugstad, I'm unsure of how the rest of the picks will turn out. Florida will be able to leverage Vokoun for a king's ransom come the deadline, considering they have both Jakob Markstrom and Marc Cheverie primed to take over. That should get them a headstart with regard to talent importation and securing the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, which will end up being Adam Larsson unless either Sean Couturier or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can cure testicular cancer, genital herpes, and the common cold.

The Isles needed this one going into the home-and-home with Montréal. They'll very certainly welcome the return of Josh Bailey when that one comes around.

Coming up big in T-Dot

The New York Islanders somehow found a way to scrape out a victory in the Air Canada Centre tonight, an encouraging sign considering the Maple Leafs entered this game as one of the two remaining undefeated NHL teams (the other, the Dallas Stars, also fell at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning). The Toronto media, as usual, took their annual potshots at the Islanders franchise with all the self-assurance of your garden-variety Cialis user.

The Positives

Dwayne Roloson stole another one. This much was obvious. He received some help from his defensemen, though, and not just when they made game-saving stops in the crease area. Radek Martinek had another excellent night against the other team's best player, this time marking Phil Kessel to near-perfection as the highly creative winger was left zero space to operate. Mark Eaton and Andy MacDonald were all over the passing and shooting lanes. But I can't take away from Rolo here-- the guy came to play. Other than one broken sequence on a power play that never should've happened late in the third, he was perfect.

Is Frans Nielsen the League's best defensive forward? His body of work over the last two and a half seasons speaks for itself. I always thought this title belonged to Pavel Datsyuk, and no one else was close. The Russian's backchecking and stick work are out of this world. However, he doesn't function in a system where he's constantly recast as a defenseman every time someone pinches. Nielsen's play to prevent Phil Kessel from going to the net in the second period was something I'm not sure any other forward does in that situation. If the Islanders are fortunate enough to make the playoffs this season, Nielsen may get nominated for the Selke.

John Tavares has greatness written all over him. It's not just because he returned to his hometown that he played like a man possessed tonight. His play to seal the win against Colorado shouldn't be overlooked, either. His skating is worlds better, and he's stronger on the puck than last year. He made several high-level plays tonight to create offense out of whole cloth. His hockey sense continues to impress, and he made some good-looking defensive plays. The mark of greatness is continuing to improve out of the absence of complacency.

The team is showing its mettle in crunch time. The Young Islanders of the past two seasons would fold in the kind of pressure-cooker situations in which they found themselves the last four games. Instead, the New Isles managed five important points in four games. Blake Comeau's penalty was the difference between walking out of the Verizon Center without points and walking out with points, but to the Isles' credit, they continued to battle in the next couple games and fought for points against good teams. The NHL has been put on notice early: even when they're down-- as they've been all year without Streit or Okposo, and without Schremp, Tavares, and Bailey at times-- the Islanders are for real. They're not going away.

The Negatives

James Wisniewski can't take that penalty late. The cross-checking was entirely unnecessary. Obviously, that late, the only acceptable penalties are those that prevent sure goals. J-Dub almost prevented the victory with his blunder, which really took the wind out of the Isles' sails. They were visibly exhausted after rolling three lines in the last two periods because Bailey was incapacitated; you could see how demoralized they were after they knew they had to kill one last penalty. The boys in blue and orange almost did it, too, but a freak bounce to Kessel's stick made the difference. Luckily, the Islanders still pulled it out.

The Isles have to do a better job of clearing the zone. Unlike last year, it's no longer about aggressive pursuing the puck to gain control. Now, it's about making the simple play when the opportunity arises. On the game-tying goal, Jon Sim tried to rush the puck up ice instead of making the easy play and clearing the zone. It came back to bite the team. There were several other close calls in the Isles' zone when they had the puck firmly on their sticks and couldn't get it past the blue line. They're getting way better at this, but there's still room for improvement.

On the Leafs

I hate the Toronto media-- not mentioning any offenders-- just as much as anyone, but I have to admire what Brian Burke is doing here. Ever since his Anaheim days, I've understood that this guy knows exactly how to build a contending team. Sure, there's the Cup to his credit and the Olympic silver medal as GM of the Gringos in British Columbia. However, note also that Vancouver has made a string of playoff appearances with a roster whose foundation was brought in by Burkie. Nowadays, after adding Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, the Harvard Law grad has Toronto going in the right direction.

Here's the thing: Kessel and Phaneuf are the only headliners on the Leafs. However, Burke has cobbled together the right depth to support these guys. They play an up-tempo style under a really good coach (Ron Wilson) that puts tons of pressure on the opposition, especially at home. I was confounded as to how that team could go undefeated on paper, but seeing them in action, it's quite obvious.

One more thing: I'm not a huge fan of Tyler Seguin, so I don't think this Kessel trade will come back to bite them so much. Ultimately, that's a fair price for a guy who can create offense for both himself and others, not to mention the 40-goal potential. Kessel's a true game-breaker; ask yourself how many other wingers in the whole NHL you would take over him for both now and the future. The Bruins, in the meantime, essentially passed over this guy and thought they could replace him with Nathan Horton. Methinks that one's not gonna work out so great.

Kessel's brother Blake, by the way, isn't so bad either.

Bring on the Fighting Stamkoses.

Thoughts on the Isles' 2010-2011 Outlook

Considering the season is on the verge of commencing, I thought this was the best time to share my opinion on how I regard the Isles' upcoming campaign. I understand there's a bit of a pall on Opening Night because Streit and Okposo will miss significant time due to injury, but as always, I remain pretty optimistic. I'll be bouncing between statements and questions in this post, followed by a bit of discussion.

Thought: Blake Comeau and James Wisniewski are going to make or break the Isles' season. All other things being equal, I think these are gonna be the two key guys because the team will look to them to replace the production of its injured leaders.

Comeau in particular will be the most important player-- not because he's the best, but because it's his performance that will determine whether the Isles can hold the fort until Okposo comes back. I highly doubt Comeau can bring the constant effort, hockey smarts, and grit at quite Okposo's level for these three or so months until the Ox comes back into the fold. Rather, I think Comeau will need to continue his great defensive play against the other team's top line-- an assignment Kyle normally handles-- and he'll need to toss up 55-60 points, which would be a career year. Playing with John Tavares, who's will probably have a monster year (see below), it may be possible. We all have to cross our fingers and hope that this is the year Comeau figures it out. The tools are there.

As for the Wiz, he's now thrust into the first pairing role he always wanted. His response to this new burden will determine how the defense holds up. The depth is much improved over last year, this much is true-- you can even go to war with Reese, Kohn, and Gervais as your backups in the AHL-- but Wiz will need to be a frontline guy if the Isles will succeed and fulfill expectations. Like Comeau, the talent is there, but he'll have to put it together to both keep the team afloat and justify whatever new mega-deal he seeks in the off-season.

Prediction: John Tavares, Andy MacDonald, and Josh Bailey will have banner years. This is based on how they performed toward the end of last year, how they looked in the pre-season, and their new responsibilities coming into this year.

Tavares will carry the chemistry he had with Moulson and Comeau into Opening Night and throughout the season. You could already tell how much his skating has improved, and I think the year of NHL experience will be huge for him because of how hard he works and how well he learns. I don't think we'll be looking at a Stamkos-level breakout, but I do think 80 points is within reach in spite of how much other teams will zero in on him (especially with the Isles' roster being so depleted).

MacDonald will try to repeat his stellar 50-game run during his debut season. I, for one, believe he's up to the task. He's probably going to get paired with Wisniewski, an arrangement that I think will work well because of how their styles complement each other. While I don't foresee MacDonald doing much in the way of offensive production, I think he'll be up to snuff defending some of the looming threats in the Atlantic Division.

Bailey will spend the full year on the wing-- one of two or three before he is inevitably shifted back to center-- and I believe that will be a huge benefit to him because of the relaxed responsibilities. In the first month of the season, with Robbie Schremp out, Bailey will team with Frans Nielsen to make a nice all-around second-line tandem. Nielsen, who's a sneaky-good offensive player in his own right, will probably pair well with Bailey in all facets.

Question: How will the goalie arrangement work out this year? Rick DiPietro looked pretty good against Calgary, and he supposedly followed that up with another good performance. How often do you play The Franchise, and how often do you play Rollie the Goalie? Valid question, considering Dwayne Roloson thrives on a huge workload. We saw his performance dip when the Isles interrupted his rhythm for the sake of getting Marty Biron out on the ice at certain points last year. Even when DP came back, Roloson was once again thrown off his game. You figure the healthier guy gets the bulk of the time, but if his production is affected by the stop-and-start nature of his schedule, that's gonna be an issue.

DP's health is no longer a serious factor in the organization's future, considering Snowy has done a great job planning around his issues. Nathan Lawson waits in the wings as the 20-game backup in case Ricky goes down. Mikko Koskinen will probably be ready to play the part of Semyon Varlamov in your program by next season. Anders Nilsson and Cody Rosen are your lottery ticket insurance policies. So in reality, a healthy DP is just a bonus.

But it's a huge bonus if he's 80% or better. We're talking about a guy who, the occasional gaffe notwithstanding, handles the puck better than anyone else in the sport at his position. He rises to the occasion when it matters most. He can steal one game in a proverbial playoff series against any opponent. Personally, I'd rather have him playing (so long as he's still effective) than not playing. So we can sort of lay back for the very first time and see how this all plays out without freaking out every time Goalie 2021 breaks a nail.

Prediction: Barring catastrophe, the Isles will not end up with a top five overall selection in the 2011 NHL Draft. Even with the Streit and Okposo situations, plus the back spasms that will sideline Robbie Schremp for a month, I think the Isles will improve on their position last season. While they may not make the playoffs-- which is what I'd like out of them, ideally-- I just can't see them dipping down that low.

Too many substantial additions have been made to improve depth, which was the team's main problem last season (especially on defense). This season, the Isles are probably OK for the first nine defensemen (Streit included), and they can bring up Hamonic in a pinch later in the year. As far as the top six, the loss of both Okposo and Schremp hurts, but they'll both be back by New Year's Day.

During the second half of the season, if the Isles are in striking range, I see Okposo's return being a huge boost for a potential run at a low playoff spot. If they're sort of languishing, I think Okposo will propel them above the dregs of the bottom five.

Question: Will Charles Wang have the stones to stick with Gordon and Snow in the face of what already looks to be an injury-riddled season? Some rumblings are talking about Scott Gordon as a potential coach on the hot seat if the Isles don't show some improvement this year. If the roster stayed intact, I'd agree with that assessment. However, without Streit and Okposo, things will be slightly more difficult to say the least. Given the development of some of the young guys so far, I think Gordo deserves a pass unless this season really turns out to be a mess.

Snow's trade for Wisniewski, along with his Eaton signing, looks extra responsible after Streit's unfortunate injury. He's been doing a really good job in light of the fact that he's had his hands tied with regards to how much he's able to spend on the roster. I think it'd be a serious mistake to let him go, but the alarming lesson we've learned after a decade of Wang's ownership is that he's capable of nearly anything.

Here's to what will hopefully be an exciting Islanders season, even in spite of the challenges they face in the months ahead.