Thought: Blake Comeau and James Wisniewski are going to make or break the Isles' season. All other things being equal, I think these are gonna be the two key guys because the team will look to them to replace the production of its injured leaders.
Comeau in particular will be the most important player-- not because he's the best, but because it's his performance that will determine whether the Isles can hold the fort until Okposo comes back. I highly doubt Comeau can bring the constant effort, hockey smarts, and grit at quite Okposo's level for these three or so months until the Ox comes back into the fold. Rather, I think Comeau will need to continue his great defensive play against the other team's top line-- an assignment Kyle normally handles-- and he'll need to toss up 55-60 points, which would be a career year. Playing with John Tavares, who's will probably have a monster year (see below), it may be possible. We all have to cross our fingers and hope that this is the year Comeau figures it out. The tools are there.
As for the Wiz, he's now thrust into the first pairing role he always wanted. His response to this new burden will determine how the defense holds up. The depth is much improved over last year, this much is true-- you can even go to war with Reese, Kohn, and Gervais as your backups in the AHL-- but Wiz will need to be a frontline guy if the Isles will succeed and fulfill expectations. Like Comeau, the talent is there, but he'll have to put it together to both keep the team afloat and justify whatever new mega-deal he seeks in the off-season.
Prediction: John Tavares, Andy MacDonald, and Josh Bailey will have banner years. This is based on how they performed toward the end of last year, how they looked in the pre-season, and their new responsibilities coming into this year.
Tavares will carry the chemistry he had with Moulson and Comeau into Opening Night and throughout the season. You could already tell how much his skating has improved, and I think the year of NHL experience will be huge for him because of how hard he works and how well he learns. I don't think we'll be looking at a Stamkos-level breakout, but I do think 80 points is within reach in spite of how much other teams will zero in on him (especially with the Isles' roster being so depleted).
MacDonald will try to repeat his stellar 50-game run during his debut season. I, for one, believe he's up to the task. He's probably going to get paired with Wisniewski, an arrangement that I think will work well because of how their styles complement each other. While I don't foresee MacDonald doing much in the way of offensive production, I think he'll be up to snuff defending some of the looming threats in the Atlantic Division.
Bailey will spend the full year on the wing-- one of two or three before he is inevitably shifted back to center-- and I believe that will be a huge benefit to him because of the relaxed responsibilities. In the first month of the season, with Robbie Schremp out, Bailey will team with Frans Nielsen to make a nice all-around second-line tandem. Nielsen, who's a sneaky-good offensive player in his own right, will probably pair well with Bailey in all facets.
Question: How will the goalie arrangement work out this year? Rick DiPietro looked pretty good against Calgary, and he supposedly followed that up with another good performance. How often do you play The Franchise, and how often do you play Rollie the Goalie? Valid question, considering Dwayne Roloson thrives on a huge workload. We saw his performance dip when the Isles interrupted his rhythm for the sake of getting Marty Biron out on the ice at certain points last year. Even when DP came back, Roloson was once again thrown off his game. You figure the healthier guy gets the bulk of the time, but if his production is affected by the stop-and-start nature of his schedule, that's gonna be an issue.
DP's health is no longer a serious factor in the organization's future, considering Snowy has done a great job planning around his issues. Nathan Lawson waits in the wings as the 20-game backup in case Ricky goes down. Mikko Koskinen will probably be ready to play the part of Semyon Varlamov in your program by next season. Anders Nilsson and Cody Rosen are your lottery ticket insurance policies. So in reality, a healthy DP is just a bonus.
But it's a huge bonus if he's 80% or better. We're talking about a guy who, the occasional gaffe notwithstanding, handles the puck better than anyone else in the sport at his position. He rises to the occasion when it matters most. He can steal one game in a proverbial playoff series against any opponent. Personally, I'd rather have him playing (so long as he's still effective) than not playing. So we can sort of lay back for the very first time and see how this all plays out without freaking out every time Goalie 2021 breaks a nail.
Prediction: Barring catastrophe, the Isles will not end up with a top five overall selection in the 2011 NHL Draft. Even with the Streit and Okposo situations, plus the back spasms that will sideline Robbie Schremp for a month, I think the Isles will improve on their position last season. While they may not make the playoffs-- which is what I'd like out of them, ideally-- I just can't see them dipping down that low.
Too many substantial additions have been made to improve depth, which was the team's main problem last season (especially on defense). This season, the Isles are probably OK for the first nine defensemen (Streit included), and they can bring up Hamonic in a pinch later in the year. As far as the top six, the loss of both Okposo and Schremp hurts, but they'll both be back by New Year's Day.
During the second half of the season, if the Isles are in striking range, I see Okposo's return being a huge boost for a potential run at a low playoff spot. If they're sort of languishing, I think Okposo will propel them above the dregs of the bottom five.
Question: Will Charles Wang have the stones to stick with Gordon and Snow in the face of what already looks to be an injury-riddled season? Some rumblings are talking about Scott Gordon as a potential coach on the hot seat if the Isles don't show some improvement this year. If the roster stayed intact, I'd agree with that assessment. However, without Streit and Okposo, things will be slightly more difficult to say the least. Given the development of some of the young guys so far, I think Gordo deserves a pass unless this season really turns out to be a mess.
Snow's trade for Wisniewski, along with his Eaton signing, looks extra responsible after Streit's unfortunate injury. He's been doing a really good job in light of the fact that he's had his hands tied with regards to how much he's able to spend on the roster. I think it'd be a serious mistake to let him go, but the alarming lesson we've learned after a decade of Wang's ownership is that he's capable of nearly anything.
Here's to what will hopefully be an exciting Islanders season, even in spite of the challenges they face in the months ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment