Struggling again at the Bell Centre

The Islanders can't seem to catch a break in Montréal, where they managed to make a game of it tonight despite being thoroughly outplayed most of the game. The power play continued to click magically, but even-strength was a mess once again. Is it a team regressing to the mean, or a team weary from so much travel in a grueling road schedule? Either way, it didn't help that the Isles ran into the best defensive team in hockey, and it plays in front of a goaltender who can do no wrong this season.

Positives

The power play has mostly worked to perfection. James Wisniewski was a worthwhile addition on this front, adequately replacing Mark Streit's production and supplying a badly needed right-handed shot. He's been dead-accurate with it recently. Puck possession has been really good, and all five guys on the first unit have great vision (even P.A. Parenteau). It's been keeping the Isles in games, but it's anybody's guess as to how long the power play output continues at this blistering rate.

The set plays and chemistry look much better. The deflections and tap-in attempts are very well synchronized, one of which led to a goal tonight (Tavares's deflection). The Isles have undoubtedly been working on this throughout the last couple months. This is a natural byproduct of the continuity in personnel, an element of the team for which Garth Snow deserves a lot of credit. The clear evidence that these guys know each other well and enjoy playing on this team is a real credit to what the GM is putting together.

Negatives

The Islanders were dominated at even strength again. Not nearly as mortal a sin as the abysmal performance in Florida, mainly because Montréal is an excellent team that was playing absolutely airtight defense until halfway through the third period. Carey Price was also bulletproof from the opening bell on every variety of shot except a slapper from the point. Nevertheless, it's a concern that the Isles still spent tons of time in their own zone and looked completely outmatched by Montréal in every area. This time, the shot differential accurately reflected which team had the better of play.

The team still can't clear the crease or the zone. This is the one factor that will keep the Isles from stringing together several wins in a row. Even if Mark Streit were healthy, this would still be a huge concern. We knew Mark Eaton wouldn't be that guy. We were hoping James Wisniewski was that guy, but he's not. Milan Jurcina needs to get a little more physical if he wants to fill this role. No matter who it is, someone on the Isles' blue line has to step up and shoulder these responsibilities; preferably, it'd be at least one guy on each pairing. Mottau and Jurcina are certainly capable.

Dougie Weight needs to keep the puck in the zone on the PP. This time, the mistake was fatal. Weight had a problem with this against the Rangers, when Gaborik got past him. Weight hooked Gaborik from behind and the Ranger sniper missed the penalty shot. Here, the result was a two-on-one misplayed by Wisniewski that resulted in a Travis Moen shorthanded goal. This type of gaffe has to be inexcusable going forward.

The team is giving up too many odd-man rushes. Montréal had several throughout this game, most of which were the results of forced errors. Some of that is the Canadiens' doing, but some of it is due to mental mistakes from the Islanders. Dwayne Roloson had to be very good to keep the score manageable at the end of the contest. If not for his heroics, the score could've been 7-3.

The Isles can't handle speedy teams. When the other guys are faster, the Isles have no real solution. That's something that Scott Gordon will have to work out strategically, considering they're not getting another personnel overhaul anytime soon. Missing Grabner really hurt, and guys like P.A. Parenteau and Matt Martin were really exposed.

On the Habs

I have little doubt that this is the best defensive team in all of hockey, especially given Carey Price's performance. He was spectacular tonight. The Isles couldn't break the Canadiens' defensive formation if their very season depended on it. They're in first place in that division for a very good reason: they execute their system to total perfection. The speedy forwards, particularly Cammalleri and Plekanec, gave the Isles fits all evening.

Their defense is excellent 1-6; after dropping Marc-Andre Bergeron, they imported sensational rookie P.K. Subban. Subban is such an incredible player at such a young age that it's simply astounding-- he could be the best defenseman in all of hockey by the time he hits his prime, even with Doughty, Hedman, and Larsson in the League. Hal Gill and Josh Gorges are underrated but nevertheless extremely effective. Finally, note that Montréal played suffocating D without Andrei Markov in the lineup (he's scheduled to return Friday, when these two teams play in the Coliseum).

I'll have a brief post tomorrow on Nino Niederreiter and Matt Martin before heading northwest for the weekend.

Coming up big in T-Dot

The New York Islanders somehow found a way to scrape out a victory in the Air Canada Centre tonight, an encouraging sign considering the Maple Leafs entered this game as one of the two remaining undefeated NHL teams (the other, the Dallas Stars, also fell at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning). The Toronto media, as usual, took their annual potshots at the Islanders franchise with all the self-assurance of your garden-variety Cialis user.

The Positives

Dwayne Roloson stole another one. This much was obvious. He received some help from his defensemen, though, and not just when they made game-saving stops in the crease area. Radek Martinek had another excellent night against the other team's best player, this time marking Phil Kessel to near-perfection as the highly creative winger was left zero space to operate. Mark Eaton and Andy MacDonald were all over the passing and shooting lanes. But I can't take away from Rolo here-- the guy came to play. Other than one broken sequence on a power play that never should've happened late in the third, he was perfect.

Is Frans Nielsen the League's best defensive forward? His body of work over the last two and a half seasons speaks for itself. I always thought this title belonged to Pavel Datsyuk, and no one else was close. The Russian's backchecking and stick work are out of this world. However, he doesn't function in a system where he's constantly recast as a defenseman every time someone pinches. Nielsen's play to prevent Phil Kessel from going to the net in the second period was something I'm not sure any other forward does in that situation. If the Islanders are fortunate enough to make the playoffs this season, Nielsen may get nominated for the Selke.

John Tavares has greatness written all over him. It's not just because he returned to his hometown that he played like a man possessed tonight. His play to seal the win against Colorado shouldn't be overlooked, either. His skating is worlds better, and he's stronger on the puck than last year. He made several high-level plays tonight to create offense out of whole cloth. His hockey sense continues to impress, and he made some good-looking defensive plays. The mark of greatness is continuing to improve out of the absence of complacency.

The team is showing its mettle in crunch time. The Young Islanders of the past two seasons would fold in the kind of pressure-cooker situations in which they found themselves the last four games. Instead, the New Isles managed five important points in four games. Blake Comeau's penalty was the difference between walking out of the Verizon Center without points and walking out with points, but to the Isles' credit, they continued to battle in the next couple games and fought for points against good teams. The NHL has been put on notice early: even when they're down-- as they've been all year without Streit or Okposo, and without Schremp, Tavares, and Bailey at times-- the Islanders are for real. They're not going away.

The Negatives

James Wisniewski can't take that penalty late. The cross-checking was entirely unnecessary. Obviously, that late, the only acceptable penalties are those that prevent sure goals. J-Dub almost prevented the victory with his blunder, which really took the wind out of the Isles' sails. They were visibly exhausted after rolling three lines in the last two periods because Bailey was incapacitated; you could see how demoralized they were after they knew they had to kill one last penalty. The boys in blue and orange almost did it, too, but a freak bounce to Kessel's stick made the difference. Luckily, the Islanders still pulled it out.

The Isles have to do a better job of clearing the zone. Unlike last year, it's no longer about aggressive pursuing the puck to gain control. Now, it's about making the simple play when the opportunity arises. On the game-tying goal, Jon Sim tried to rush the puck up ice instead of making the easy play and clearing the zone. It came back to bite the team. There were several other close calls in the Isles' zone when they had the puck firmly on their sticks and couldn't get it past the blue line. They're getting way better at this, but there's still room for improvement.

On the Leafs

I hate the Toronto media-- not mentioning any offenders-- just as much as anyone, but I have to admire what Brian Burke is doing here. Ever since his Anaheim days, I've understood that this guy knows exactly how to build a contending team. Sure, there's the Cup to his credit and the Olympic silver medal as GM of the Gringos in British Columbia. However, note also that Vancouver has made a string of playoff appearances with a roster whose foundation was brought in by Burkie. Nowadays, after adding Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, the Harvard Law grad has Toronto going in the right direction.

Here's the thing: Kessel and Phaneuf are the only headliners on the Leafs. However, Burke has cobbled together the right depth to support these guys. They play an up-tempo style under a really good coach (Ron Wilson) that puts tons of pressure on the opposition, especially at home. I was confounded as to how that team could go undefeated on paper, but seeing them in action, it's quite obvious.

One more thing: I'm not a huge fan of Tyler Seguin, so I don't think this Kessel trade will come back to bite them so much. Ultimately, that's a fair price for a guy who can create offense for both himself and others, not to mention the 40-goal potential. Kessel's a true game-breaker; ask yourself how many other wingers in the whole NHL you would take over him for both now and the future. The Bruins, in the meantime, essentially passed over this guy and thought they could replace him with Nathan Horton. Methinks that one's not gonna work out so great.

Kessel's brother Blake, by the way, isn't so bad either.

Bring on the Fighting Stamkoses.

Takin' 'em to Slovakia

The Isles come away from the Coliseum with a win to show for all their hard work lately. Colorado's a great team this year, so it was good to see the boys take this one both because (a) they flat-out played better and (b) they were actually the more talented team, even with Streit and Okposo out. This is the type of game you were looking for them to put together to continue the encouragement that they could be a playoff team this year. Both teams were coming off back-to-back games, though the Isles had to travel while Colorado was already in the area capping off their tour of the tri-state hockey squads.

Milan Jurcina showed why he belongs. I was a little worried after the first couple games, but eventually, Jurcina came through on several fronts-- culminating in his effort during this Colorado game. It's not just that he scored the two goals, though they were obviously huge tallies. He's put together three really good games in a row on the PK against very tough teams, ramping up his physical play to make even more of an impact. He's the best defenseman on the team at clearing the crease, and he showed it again tonight. The slapshot he unleashed to open the scoring was just a bonus. I was all about slotting Hillen over Jurcina in the beginning of the season, but as they say, that's why I'm blogging and Scott Gordon's coaching.

Frans Nielsen is without question one of the top five defensive forwards in the NHL. Last night, he was instrumental in silencing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Tonight, Matt Duchene, Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny, and Milan Hejduk had tons of trouble trying to solve him. He was all over the ice and constantly made his presence known despite not showing up on the score sheet. Snow's contract for him always looks better with every game Nielsen plays.

Good to see Dwayne Roloson's still got it. His effort shouldn't be overlooked. One questionable bad-angle goal, but a host of other spectacular saves to give the Isles momentum. He matched Craig Anderson's excellent first period effort and outlasted him through the rest of the game. He even showed more of an affinity for playing the puck, an activity in which he normally refrains from participating altogether.

Josh Bailey is finding even more ways to get better. Tonight, it was in the faceoff circle, where despite winning only three out of seven draws, he had two key victories in huge situations. One of them led directly to the first goal in a shorthanded situation. Bailey now has seven points in five games, and he's playing like a #1 center. Granted, Bailey doesn't really need to continue performing at this pace to make a huge contribution to the Isles' effort to make the postseason. However, if he does, then he'll establish himself as a bona fide top line center in the NHL. That'll be something interesting to watch throughout the season.

No mental mistakes tonight. Dougie Weight took two pretty smart penalties, but other than that, the Isles did a good job staying out of the box. No offensive-zone penalties, no bench minors, no boneheaded turnovers, no ill-advised passes. This is the type of game the Isles can play when they minimize the goofs.

P.A. Parenteau might actually have some chance of winning me back over. Maybe. He did a good job creating on Bailey's goal and Grabner's goal. He also didn't screw anything up tonight. It's possible he's getting his act together. We'll have to see if he's for real.

One negative from this evening:

The early third-period goal is a drag. You never wanna give another team momentum like that. The Isles couldn't convert on a huge power play to start the stanza, then Stewart comes right back down and scores. I'm sure the team will put the clamps on the opponents next time they come out with a third-period advantage.

On the Avs:

The Avs are similar to the Isles in that they're a young team reaping the benefits of all their kids coming together at once. Last year's magical season speaks to the idea that the draft is the right way to build. The thing about Colorado's roster is that while they are chock full of talented kids, they lack serious star power. Many Avs fans will argue that Duchene is that guy for them, and some will even go so far as to say he's gonna be better long-term than Tavares. I don't think that'll be the case at all, but they're entitled to their opinion.

I also like Stewart, Cumiskey, Yip (didn't play tonight), and Galiardi. The Avs also have some nice prospects in the pipeline, including but not limited to Kevin Shattenkirk and Steve Silas (who they absolutely stole this year). That being said, Stastny doesn't really qualify as a headliner. The Isles, in the meantime, look like they're putting together a top six full of headliners. That being said, it's still early, and either team can still end up anywhere. My feeling, though, is that the Isles will have the star power to pull through to the next level.

On to Toronto, where the surprising Leafs await.

A surprising effort comes up short

I had the pleasure of seeing this game live and in person at the Verizon Center. I was happy to see the Isles make it interesting, but ultimately, they couldn't capitalize on several golden opportunities. While Blake Comeau's penalty was the obvious difference-maker, give some serious credit to Michal Neuvirth. The kid was able to stonewall the Isles in his third NHL game with a (frankly speaking) terrible defensive corps in front of him.

I have some comments about the Isles before I end things with a paragraph or two on the Caps, who I follow by default down here in DC.

Dwayne Roloson kept the Isles in it. Good to see that Rollie hasn't missed a beat. Several textbook saves from him, some of which DiPietro definitely wouldn't have made at this stage of his comeback. Roloson's a reliable option to have in case it hits the fan with DP, and I imagine Nathan Lawson can answer the call for ten or so games in an emergency situation. Many people might've questioned how Dwayne could hold up at 41, but he looks sharp as ever.

Radek Martinek is the Ovechkin kryptonite. I mentioned this in a post over at Islander Mania before the game started, but I'm beginning to notice it at an increasing rate. Despite Ovechkin factoring into both goals tonight, Radek stymied him at several other points in the game. When Ovechkin scored, Eaton was defending him, and there was nothing more the big guy could've done-- Alex is just that good. When Backström scored, Martinek wasn't on the ice. You don't hold the Caps to two goals at home very easily, and Martinek was the biggest part of that tonight.

Nino Niederreiter is probably here to stay. He had his first NHL goal this evening, and he nearly had another one off a great release from the high slot after a faceoff win. His instincts are top-notch, and he still has rhino strength on the puck at the NHL level. I think all of us underestimated his ability to succeed this quickly in the pros. He's gonna be an all-around contributor to this team for a long while.

Michael Grabner has a place here if he works hard. The Isles haven't had a guy with that kind of speed since Palffy left the building. I liked his offensive creativity as well. If he can meld into the system, I like the idea of having him on the team. He gets my tentative approval for now.

The negatives:

Blake Comeau must learn that he can't take that kind of risk in that situation. I understand he was just finishing a check, and it was a very ticky-tack call, but that's the kind of knowledge he will have to gain with experience as a go-to guy in the final five minutes. Comeau will probably never completely eliminate the brain farts from his overall repertoire, but he made great contributions in other areas tonight and peppered the net with some quality shots. He's officially turned the corner, but it's now time to work out the kinks; this is the second really bad penalty from him in a late-game situation.

I don't understand why Andy MacDonald is on PP1, even with Wisniewski out. MacDonald had another sound defensive game tonight, but I put his power play troubles on Scott Gordon. Jack Hillen is a power play quarterback by trade. He anchored an atrocious second unit to the tune of 20+ points last year. If he's gonna be in the lineup, he should be playing the point, especially with Wisniewski sitting out. I'd even argue that Hillen and Weight should be playing the points on PP1, then Jurcina and Mottau should be out there on PP2.

Trent Hunter doesn't appear to belong anymore. It's a speed-oriented system that favors players with quick releases. Hunter, unfortunately, brings neither. He does have virtues: strength on the puck, high character, a good slapshot. The reality is, though, that it's time for him to move on. He's an NHL player, but he'd be better in some other system... Calgary would be good for him, or Jersey might even be the right stop at his price tag.

I've seen enough of P.A. Parenteau. The experiment was nice, but I believe it'll end as soon as John Tavares is re-inserted into the lineup. He's not quick enough with either his feet or his decision-making, he turns the puck over in every zone, he's easily overpowered, and he doesn't play much defense. The team-- get this-- has too much talent for him to stick around. Nice knowin' ya, buddy.

On the Caps:

I still don't understand George McPhee's thinking. Three things were clear after the Capitals dropped their first round series to Montreal: (1) Bruce Boudreau needed to go; (2) the team as a whole needed to get physically tougher; and (3) the defense just wasn't gonna cut it as is. What does he do in response? Returns the same defense corps, puts his stamp of approval on Boudreau's failures with the NHL's most talented squad for multiple consecutive years by keeping him around, and imports DJ King in exchange for one of his most intriguing prospects.

What did we see tonight? King made his debut, had zero on-ice impact, and clearly hasn't effected the top-down change that the team desperately needs if it wants to win the Cup. Boudreau promotes a system sorely lacking in fundamentals that allows Ovechkin and Backström to dance around with the puck and hopefully make something happen through sheer force of skill. The defense is barely able to handle a tenacious Islanders forecheck, leading the crowd to applaud almost every time the puck was skated out of the zone.

Let me ask a stupid question: does a team whose achilles heel is its defense look smart if it returns all of its top four and supports them with two fresh-faced rookies who can't play in their own zone? John Carlson looks lost in every area of the ice except the opponent's blue line. I didn't even know Karl Alzner played in the game until my buddy John told me after it was over. Mike Green had his usual abominable game in his own end. This Tyler Sloan character is not gonna be the elixir. Where was, say, Anton Volchenkov? Andy Sutton? Sergei Gonchar? They certainly had the cap room.

If McPhee wants to take home the Cup, he should flip some of his farmhands and his first-round pick for the best defenseman available come the deadline. Because in spite of an explosive offense-- one that the League is slowly starting to figure out, by the way-- and an encouraging young goaltender, the Caps have no shot at any hardware if they continue along with these six guys on the blue line.

For the Isles, it's on to Pittsburgh, where they can hopefully take advantage of a reeling team that can't seem to find any giddy-up in spite of really positive changes in the off-season.

Thoughts on the Isles' 2010-2011 Outlook

Considering the season is on the verge of commencing, I thought this was the best time to share my opinion on how I regard the Isles' upcoming campaign. I understand there's a bit of a pall on Opening Night because Streit and Okposo will miss significant time due to injury, but as always, I remain pretty optimistic. I'll be bouncing between statements and questions in this post, followed by a bit of discussion.

Thought: Blake Comeau and James Wisniewski are going to make or break the Isles' season. All other things being equal, I think these are gonna be the two key guys because the team will look to them to replace the production of its injured leaders.

Comeau in particular will be the most important player-- not because he's the best, but because it's his performance that will determine whether the Isles can hold the fort until Okposo comes back. I highly doubt Comeau can bring the constant effort, hockey smarts, and grit at quite Okposo's level for these three or so months until the Ox comes back into the fold. Rather, I think Comeau will need to continue his great defensive play against the other team's top line-- an assignment Kyle normally handles-- and he'll need to toss up 55-60 points, which would be a career year. Playing with John Tavares, who's will probably have a monster year (see below), it may be possible. We all have to cross our fingers and hope that this is the year Comeau figures it out. The tools are there.

As for the Wiz, he's now thrust into the first pairing role he always wanted. His response to this new burden will determine how the defense holds up. The depth is much improved over last year, this much is true-- you can even go to war with Reese, Kohn, and Gervais as your backups in the AHL-- but Wiz will need to be a frontline guy if the Isles will succeed and fulfill expectations. Like Comeau, the talent is there, but he'll have to put it together to both keep the team afloat and justify whatever new mega-deal he seeks in the off-season.

Prediction: John Tavares, Andy MacDonald, and Josh Bailey will have banner years. This is based on how they performed toward the end of last year, how they looked in the pre-season, and their new responsibilities coming into this year.

Tavares will carry the chemistry he had with Moulson and Comeau into Opening Night and throughout the season. You could already tell how much his skating has improved, and I think the year of NHL experience will be huge for him because of how hard he works and how well he learns. I don't think we'll be looking at a Stamkos-level breakout, but I do think 80 points is within reach in spite of how much other teams will zero in on him (especially with the Isles' roster being so depleted).

MacDonald will try to repeat his stellar 50-game run during his debut season. I, for one, believe he's up to the task. He's probably going to get paired with Wisniewski, an arrangement that I think will work well because of how their styles complement each other. While I don't foresee MacDonald doing much in the way of offensive production, I think he'll be up to snuff defending some of the looming threats in the Atlantic Division.

Bailey will spend the full year on the wing-- one of two or three before he is inevitably shifted back to center-- and I believe that will be a huge benefit to him because of the relaxed responsibilities. In the first month of the season, with Robbie Schremp out, Bailey will team with Frans Nielsen to make a nice all-around second-line tandem. Nielsen, who's a sneaky-good offensive player in his own right, will probably pair well with Bailey in all facets.

Question: How will the goalie arrangement work out this year? Rick DiPietro looked pretty good against Calgary, and he supposedly followed that up with another good performance. How often do you play The Franchise, and how often do you play Rollie the Goalie? Valid question, considering Dwayne Roloson thrives on a huge workload. We saw his performance dip when the Isles interrupted his rhythm for the sake of getting Marty Biron out on the ice at certain points last year. Even when DP came back, Roloson was once again thrown off his game. You figure the healthier guy gets the bulk of the time, but if his production is affected by the stop-and-start nature of his schedule, that's gonna be an issue.

DP's health is no longer a serious factor in the organization's future, considering Snowy has done a great job planning around his issues. Nathan Lawson waits in the wings as the 20-game backup in case Ricky goes down. Mikko Koskinen will probably be ready to play the part of Semyon Varlamov in your program by next season. Anders Nilsson and Cody Rosen are your lottery ticket insurance policies. So in reality, a healthy DP is just a bonus.

But it's a huge bonus if he's 80% or better. We're talking about a guy who, the occasional gaffe notwithstanding, handles the puck better than anyone else in the sport at his position. He rises to the occasion when it matters most. He can steal one game in a proverbial playoff series against any opponent. Personally, I'd rather have him playing (so long as he's still effective) than not playing. So we can sort of lay back for the very first time and see how this all plays out without freaking out every time Goalie 2021 breaks a nail.

Prediction: Barring catastrophe, the Isles will not end up with a top five overall selection in the 2011 NHL Draft. Even with the Streit and Okposo situations, plus the back spasms that will sideline Robbie Schremp for a month, I think the Isles will improve on their position last season. While they may not make the playoffs-- which is what I'd like out of them, ideally-- I just can't see them dipping down that low.

Too many substantial additions have been made to improve depth, which was the team's main problem last season (especially on defense). This season, the Isles are probably OK for the first nine defensemen (Streit included), and they can bring up Hamonic in a pinch later in the year. As far as the top six, the loss of both Okposo and Schremp hurts, but they'll both be back by New Year's Day.

During the second half of the season, if the Isles are in striking range, I see Okposo's return being a huge boost for a potential run at a low playoff spot. If they're sort of languishing, I think Okposo will propel them above the dregs of the bottom five.

Question: Will Charles Wang have the stones to stick with Gordon and Snow in the face of what already looks to be an injury-riddled season? Some rumblings are talking about Scott Gordon as a potential coach on the hot seat if the Isles don't show some improvement this year. If the roster stayed intact, I'd agree with that assessment. However, without Streit and Okposo, things will be slightly more difficult to say the least. Given the development of some of the young guys so far, I think Gordo deserves a pass unless this season really turns out to be a mess.

Snow's trade for Wisniewski, along with his Eaton signing, looks extra responsible after Streit's unfortunate injury. He's been doing a really good job in light of the fact that he's had his hands tied with regards to how much he's able to spend on the roster. I think it'd be a serious mistake to let him go, but the alarming lesson we've learned after a decade of Wang's ownership is that he's capable of nearly anything.

Here's to what will hopefully be an exciting Islanders season, even in spite of the challenges they face in the months ahead.